Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2003

CURRENTLY...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN PENINSULA/FL STRAITS IS MAINTAINING AN
H100-H50 S/SWRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...WHICH IN TURN IS TAPPING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GOMEX/CARIB.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE PANHANDLE HAS BECOME STATIONARY...WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM DRIVING
IT HAS MOVED INTO NEW ENGLAND.  UPSTREAM...H25 JETSTREAK PUSHING UP
FROM NRN MEX HAS STRENGTHENED TO +70KTS...JET STREAK OVER THE
MIDWEST IS NOW +110KTS.  RESULT IS A CLASSIC COUPLED JET PATTERN
THAT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRW OVER ERN TX...JUST EAST OF A BROAD LOW
PRES TROF OVER THE DESERT SW/NE MEX.

FCST DISC...
WET WX TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE S
WILL BUILD UP THE PENINSULA THROUGH SAT...BUT THE WX PATTERN OVER
THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LWR MS
RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z SAT.  ENTRAINED IN THE STRONG E-W JET THAT
PREVAILS E OF THE ROCKIES...THIS NEW LOW WILL THEN SCOOT UP THE
BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE (MUCH LIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM HAS DONE)
AND INTO THE NE U.S. BY 00Z SUN...PREVENTING THE RIDGE AXIS FROM
MOVING MUCH FARTHER N THAN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

DRIER AIR NOTED OVER THE SW ATLC (PW OFF THE 12Z SAN JUAN RAOB WAS
ONLY 1.4...ON THE LOW SIDE THIS TIME OF YEAR)...AND THE E/SE WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WILL PULL THIS DRY AIR ACROSS THE
BAHAMA BANK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MEANWHILE...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY WILL DRAG A NEW COLD
FRONT INTO THE SE U.S...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY AIR MASS
SKIRTING THE NRN GULF COAST.  THE END RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE A SQUEEZE PLAY OVER THE STATE OF FL...A PATTERN THAT
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONCENTRATES
OVER THE PENINSULA.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PINNED OVER THE SRN PENINSULA...PREVAILING
H85-H50 STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE S/SW...A DIRECTION
THAT FAVORS E FL PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL PRECIP.  STEERING FLOW WILL
INITIALLY STRENGTHEN ON SAT AS THE RIDGE AND THE TROF BEGIN TO
INTERACT...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...
AS THE AXIS BUILDS NORTH BY SUN...THE STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN...
ALLOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP.  ATTM...BOTH GFS/ETA
MODELS ARE INDICATING MOST OF THE H70-H25 DYNAMIC SUPPORT ASSOC WITH
THE FRONT WILL PASS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA TO THE N...PLUS AVN
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM COVECTIVE FEEDBACK BRINGING ITS
SOLUTION INTO SOME DOUBT.  NEVERTHELESS...THE HEAVY RAIN ELEMENTS
ARE THERE...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONVERGE.

MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SAT AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH N AND THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SE.  DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE HIGHER THAN 15
KTS...WITH THE S/SWRLY COMPONENT RESULTING IN FETCH LIMITED SEAS BLO
5FT. ADD SCT/NMRS TSTMS MOVING OFFSHORE...AND THE BOATING FCST DOES
NOT LOOK PROMISING THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB TT 073/088 074/089 072 47574
MCO TT 073/090 073/090 074 46363
MLB TT 074/088 074/089 073 46574
VRB TT 074/089 075/089 073 46574   81

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW
AVIATION/FIRE...PENDERGRAST

AMZ550-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-052100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. STORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. TO THE WEST...SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG
THE  FLORIDA WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH TOWARD THE INTERIOR...AND THIS WILL CAUSE STORMS TO
INCREASE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS WELL.

COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA
...WITH THE ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTHEAST BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND INTO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY AND MID EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS  OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CRISTALDI

FLZ064-052115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
431 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL IN EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER THE
FLORIDA TURNPIKE...8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOBE SOUND...MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE PORT SALERNO AND PORT SEWALL.

REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STRONG STORMS PASS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.

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FLZ054-059-052130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
447 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2003

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL ACROSS EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...INTO ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY OFF TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...BUT SOME STORMS ARE SHOWING ERRATIC
MOVEMENT BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. RESIDENTS OF INDIAN RIVER AND ST
LUCIE COUNTIES FROM FELLSMERE TO VERO BEACH AND FORT PIERCE SHOULD
REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STRONG STORMS PASS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.

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