Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003

.DISCUSSION...RATHER QUICK MOVING SHOWERS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
KICKING OUT AHEAD OF THEM...KEEPING COVERAGE LIMITED IN SOME SPOTS.
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH STORMS PROPAGATING ACROSS FROM
THE WEST WILL PRODUCE THE GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  ATMOSPHERE MAY BE WORKED OVER/CLOUDED UP ENOUGH FOR
EVENING POPS TO BE ONLY 20/30 PERCENT...AND WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
CALL ON THAT.

PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT MOIST REGIME.  LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING NORTH OF US AS FIRST TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND ANOTHER DROPS INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

WED...GFS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT IS CONCENTRATING TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND
PRECIP WITH COMPLEX IN THE GULF AND INDICATING SMALL QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS OUR AREA.  THE ONLY WAY THIS WOULD HAPPEN IS IF WE GOT HEAVY
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY.  GRADIENT MAY HOLD
OFF SEA BREEZE SO THAT IS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR ALSO.  WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT AND GOOD MOISTURE SUGGEST HIGHER POPS...AND WILL GO
WITH 50 IN THE NORTH AND 40 IN THE SOUTH.

THU/FRI...GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOT
BUILDING NORTH AS FAST...MAKING IT TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY FRI
NIGHT.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE THE AREA IN A FAVORED SOUTHWEST
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.  GRADIENT SHOULD
NOT BE AS STRONG SO A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED.  WILL STAY WITH 40
PERCENT POPS AREAWIDE.

SAT/SUN...GFS DRIFTS RIDGE AXIS TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH H50
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.  MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING A
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST STATES.  THIS MAY BE SUGGESTIVE OF DEEP
LAYER RIDGE NOT BUILDING NORTH QUITE AS FAST AS THE MODEL IS
SHOWING.  HENCE THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH MID LEVEL WARMING AND
CERTAINLY WOULD EXPECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LATEST GFS STILL DOES NOT SHOW MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING NORTH OF US...WHICH IS MORE OF A SUPPRESSIVE PATTERN.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD STAY IN OUR VICINITY AND EXPECT MOISTURE
LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SEA BREEZE GENERATED STORMS...MAYBE
STARTING TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR MORESO.

MARINE...WILL FAVOR THE ETA/UKMET WINDS...WHICH ARE A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE GFS AND ITS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
COAST REGION.  STILL...EXPECT 15 KNOTS OR MORE OVER THE NORTH LEG
TONIGHT/WED...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT.  EXPECT
GRADIENT TO DECREASE THU...EVEN THOUGH GFS HANGS ONTO ITS SURFACE
LOW.  WILL STAY WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND EVEN THOUGH
RIDGE AXIS GETS CLOSE TO US...SINCE THE RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG AND
THE GFS INDICATES LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 073/088 072/088 072 3545
MCO 073/088 073/087 073 2545
MLB 074/089 073/087 073 2435

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY
AVIATION/FIRE...BRAGAW

AMZ550-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-032100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
615 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LOCAL SEA AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS
FORMING OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST COAST...INTRACOASTAL AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS BY EARLY EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS UP
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR SO COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE LOCAL SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WITH SOME STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD SELF ACTIVATE IF ANY WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CRISTALDI

FLZ047-054-059-147-031830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
152 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL BREVARD COUNTY...INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...ST.
LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL FROM JUST WEST OF MERRITT ISLAND TO 10 MILES WEST OF
MELBOURNE AND FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEBASTIAN TO ALONG THE
FLORIDA TURNPIKE WEST OF FORT PIERCE. THE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH AND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF EASTERN BREVARD...INDIAN
RIVER AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM. THE GREATEST THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON IS FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER
HAZARD IN THE WET SEASON. HEAD INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A STORM.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FEW
STORMS MIGHT BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

BCH

FLZ054-059-031900-

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003

...STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 155 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
JUST WEST OF I-95 BETWEEN SAINT LUCIE AND VERO LAKE ESTATES 8 MILES
WEST OF SAINT LUCIE AIRPORT. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH AT 10 TO
15 MPH.  LIGHTNING FLASH RATES WERE GREATER THAN 40 PER MINUTE.

WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN WAS OCCURRING WEST OF I-95...LIGHTNING
DETECTION EQUIPMENT INDICATED CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES AS FAR EAST AS
THE INDIAN RIVER AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED
AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE
OFFER NO PROTECTION.

MOST PEOPLE WHO ARE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN FLORIDA ARE STRUCK EITHER
PRIOR TO THE RAIN REACHING THEIR LOCATION...OR AFTER THE RAIN HAS
ENDED.

BRAGAW