Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
328 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2003

CURRENTLY...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOMENTARILY INCREASED BUOY 009/S WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BUT...THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ONCE THE EFFECT OF THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH WEARS OFF. CUTOFF LOW OVER LA/MS SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MS DELTA AND INTO THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES
TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...NORTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER LA/MS AND MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL DRIER
AIR AND 500MB RIDGING OVER THE AREA APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING
CONVECTION TO A DEGREE AND THE RUC FORECAST AT 20/03Z STILL HAS
500MB RIDGING OVER THE PENINSULA. CURRENT 20/30 COASTAL/INTERIOR
SPLIT OF STORMS LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL CONTINUE THEM LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT AS THE RIDGING OVER THE PENINSULA WEAKENS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CUTOFF OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO FILL AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH WILL THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST AND INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE
AGAIN AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND OTHER LONGER TERM MODELS
STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THEN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IF
THIS VERIFIES EXPECT A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE/CLIMO DUE TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAND MASS.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY/MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE WORKS IT WAY
ALONG THE EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
BAHAMAS.  WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH WE SHOULD BE IN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY.

MARINE...AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT 4 TO 5 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. FRIDAY
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB BB 072/084 069/084 071 2313
MCO BB 072/088 069/088 072 3442
MLB BB 073/086 071/086 073 2313

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER
AVIATION/FIRE...SHARP

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
192100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1057 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND TODAY.  AS THEY DO...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS TO FORM ALONG THEIR RESPECTIVE BOUNDARIES.  STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST.  AS THE SEA BREEZES APPROACH EACH
OTHER BY MID AFTERNOON...THE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE OSCEOLA OKEECHOBEE BORDER.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
PEOPLE WHO ARE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY INDOORS OR TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY AT THE FIRST SIGNS OF AN APPROACHING OR DEVELOPING STORM.
REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE WELL IN ADVANCE OF AND BEHIND THE
RAINFALL..MAKING IT THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS HAZARD TO ARRIVE AND THE
LAST TO LEAVE.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 4 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFE GUARD AND BEACH PATROL REPORTS
INDICATE RIP CURRENTS WERE ALREADY FORMING AND WERE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. REMEMBER TO ASK THE LIFEGUARDS OR
BEACH PATROL ABOUT RIP CURRENTS BEFORE GOING INTO THE SURF TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE STATE LATE
TUESDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO HIGHER STORM COVERAGE. STORM CHANCES MAY
DIMINISH A LITTLE BY MID WEEK...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH.  THESE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH AND INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL INCREASE
THE RIP CURRENT THREAT AT AREA BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

BRAGAW