Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Melbourne, FL

May 15, 2003Martin County, Saint Lucie County, Florida

NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2003, 8:48 PM EDT for Martin County, Saint Lucie County, Florida. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2003, 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC)
Expired
May 15, 2003, 9:45 PM EDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
NWS Melbourne, FL
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Martin County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cape Canaveral, FL at 00:00Z on 2003-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3224 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cape Canaveral, FL at 00:00Z on 2003-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 77 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3224 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-3 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
619 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.7
Supercell composite
9.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

922 
WUUS52 KMLB 160048
SVRMLB
FLC085-111-160145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
846 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWEST MARTIN COUNTY
  SOUTHWEST ST. LUCIE COUNTY
  IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 838 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY...OR ABOUT 11
  MILES NORTH OF PORT MAYACA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER...
RURAL SOUTHWEST ST. LUCIE COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. IF
THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR.

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

LAT...LON 2712 8069 2707 8055 2736 8045 2738 8064

$$

28

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 2:35 PM EDT, 6 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 2:35 PM EDT, 6 hours 13 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
235 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

CURRENT...BOTH LARGE AND SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. A DIFFUSE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD TOWARD THE REGION SHOULD HELP IN GETTING STORMS
DEVELOPING WITH POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MERGER. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED
0-2KM HELICITY IN THE COASTAL ZONE DUE TO EAST COAST BREEZE. SPECIAL
INTERMEDIATE SOUNDING @XMR CONFIRMS WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP AND H5
TEMPS AT -11C.

TONIGHT...WITH STEERING LEVEL WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KT WLY WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED PCPN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING WITH
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER IMPULSE
IN NW FLOW WILL CLEAR EAST OF STATE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH
CLOUD COVERAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FRIDAY...AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...CREATING SUMMER LIKE
REGIME. MOISTURE LEVELS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED AND WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS PRIMARILY OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS WITH ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH WLY
COMPONENT SO EASTERN SIDE OF PENINSULA REMAINS FAVORED FOR LINGERING
PCPN INTO THE EVENING. WILL CARRY SCATTERED NIGHT TIME COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH.

WEEKEND...POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH PORTION OF AREA
UNCHANGED. THIS FAVORS GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS INLAND.
WILL STAY WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE
INLAND. OTHERWISE TEMPS APPROACHING 90 OVER INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
COAST. LOWS AROUND 70 AT NIGHT.

EXTENDED/MARINE...WILL MONITOR EXTENDED GUID DEPICTION OF LOW
DEVELOPMENT INVOF BERMUDA WITH TROUGH AXIS ELONGATING WWD TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. UKMET NOT SHOWING TRAPPED SYSTEM ATTM SO WILL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY TO HOPEFULLY DEVELOP LONG RANGE. FETCH
NORTH OF SYSTEM MAY SEND SOME SWELLS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE BANDING OVER STATE NOT SHOWING ANY DECREASE SO WILL HAVE TO
CARRY SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE AT EAST INTO MID WEEK.

PRELIM...
DAB TB 070/088 071/089 070 3433
MCO TT 069/092 071/092 071 3434
MLB TB 072/088 071/089 071 3433 44

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...PENDERGRAST
AVIATION/FIRE...SHARP
Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 10:58 AM EDT, 9 hours 50 minutes before
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
152200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1058 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...

A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SEA...LAKE...AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. STORM MOVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE EAST. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME QUITE
STRONG PRODUCING 50 MPH WINDS AND MARBLE SIZED HAIL. A FEW COULD
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE WINDS GREATER THAN 58 MPH AND DIME SIZED
HAIL OR LARGER. NEAR THE COAST...THERE ALSO EXISTS A POSSIBILITY OF A
WATERSPOUT OR A WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADO. INTERESTS WITHIN THE
COASTAL ZONE SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THIS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. PEOPLE WHO ARE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY INDOORS OR TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY AT THE FIRST SIGNS OF AN APPROACHING OR DEVELOPING
STORM. REMEMBER...LIGHTING IS THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS HAZARD TO
ARRIVE AND THE LAST TO LEAVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE...HENCE SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE THEIR NETWORKS IF ANY
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

DS/JP

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 15, 7:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
FLZ053-054-160000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
713 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...MOVING INTO WESTERN INDIAN RIVER
COUNTY...

AT 704 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER YEEHAW
JUNCTION...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH TOWARD BLUE CYPRESS LAKE.

IF THE STORM BECOMES SEVERE...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

28

The office that day

Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 9:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBIndian River42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.