Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2003, 8:48 PM EDT for Martin County, Saint Lucie County, Florida. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2003, 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2003, 9:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 57 min
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Martin County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3224 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 619 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 77 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 113 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.7
- Supercell composite
- 9.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
922 WUUS52 KMLB 160048 SVRMLB FLC085-111-160145- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 846 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWEST MARTIN COUNTY SOUTHWEST ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA * UNTIL 945 PM EDT * AT 838 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTH OF PORT MAYACA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER... RURAL SOUTHWEST ST. LUCIE COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. LAT...LON 2712 8069 2707 8055 2736 8045 2738 8064 $$ 28
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 2:35 PM EDT, 6 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 15, 2:35 PM EDT, 6 hours 13 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 235 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003 CURRENT...BOTH LARGE AND SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. A DIFFUSE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING EWD TOWARD THE REGION SHOULD HELP IN GETTING STORMS DEVELOPING WITH POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MERGER. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED 0-2KM HELICITY IN THE COASTAL ZONE DUE TO EAST COAST BREEZE. SPECIAL INTERMEDIATE SOUNDING @XMR CONFIRMS WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP AND H5 TEMPS AT -11C. TONIGHT...WITH STEERING LEVEL WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KT WLY WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED PCPN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING WITH TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER IMPULSE IN NW FLOW WILL CLEAR EAST OF STATE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH CLOUD COVERAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. FRIDAY...AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...CREATING SUMMER LIKE REGIME. MOISTURE LEVELS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED AND WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS PRIMARILY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH WLY COMPONENT SO EASTERN SIDE OF PENINSULA REMAINS FAVORED FOR LINGERING PCPN INTO THE EVENING. WILL CARRY SCATTERED NIGHT TIME COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH. WEEKEND...POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH PORTION OF AREA UNCHANGED. THIS FAVORS GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS INLAND. WILL STAY WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE INLAND. OTHERWISE TEMPS APPROACHING 90 OVER INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. LOWS AROUND 70 AT NIGHT. EXTENDED/MARINE...WILL MONITOR EXTENDED GUID DEPICTION OF LOW DEVELOPMENT INVOF BERMUDA WITH TROUGH AXIS ELONGATING WWD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. UKMET NOT SHOWING TRAPPED SYSTEM ATTM SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY TO HOPEFULLY DEVELOP LONG RANGE. FETCH NORTH OF SYSTEM MAY SEND SOME SWELLS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE BANDING OVER STATE NOT SHOWING ANY DECREASE SO WILL HAVE TO CARRY SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE AT EAST INTO MID WEEK. PRELIM... DAB TB 070/088 071/089 070 3433 MCO TT 069/092 071/092 071 3434 MLB TB 072/088 071/089 071 3433 44 .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...PENDERGRAST AVIATION/FIRE...SHARP
Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 10:58 AM EDT, 9 hours 50 minutes before
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 152200- EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1058 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003 .DAY ONE...TODAY: ...STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE... A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SEA...LAKE...AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. STORM MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE EAST. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG PRODUCING 50 MPH WINDS AND MARBLE SIZED HAIL. A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE WINDS GREATER THAN 58 MPH AND DIME SIZED HAIL OR LARGER. NEAR THE COAST...THERE ALSO EXISTS A POSSIBILITY OF A WATERSPOUT OR A WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADO. INTERESTS WITHIN THE COASTAL ZONE SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THIS ADDITIONAL HAZARD. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. PEOPLE WHO ARE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY INDOORS OR TO A PLACE OF SAFETY AT THE FIRST SIGNS OF AN APPROACHING OR DEVELOPING STORM. REMEMBER...LIGHTING IS THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS HAZARD TO ARRIVE AND THE LAST TO LEAVE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE...HENCE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE THEIR NETWORKS IF ANY WARNINGS ARE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. DS/JP
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 15, 7:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
FLZ053-054-160000- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 713 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...MOVING INTO WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY... AT 704 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER YEEHAW JUNCTION...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH TOWARD BLUE CYPRESS LAKE. IF THE STORM BECOMES SEVERE...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. 28
The office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 9:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Indian River | 42 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.