Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2003

...FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...

MAIN CONCERNS ARE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST PUSHING EAST.  THE VERY WARM AIR FEEDING INTO
THE COMPLEX ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN WEAKLY COUPLED JET
PATTERN WAS ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE COMPLEX GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING RATHER BREEZY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
WILL TAPER POPS FROM LIKELY IN THE NORTH TO CHANCE (40) IN THE SOUTH.

WEEKEND...MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SATURDAY BUT TRAILING END OF TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME PRE FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY.
LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM DAY TOO AS LONG AS WE GET A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.  WILL CARRY BREEZY MENTION THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS STRONG AS TODAY.  WEAKENING WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SLIPPING
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY DICTATES A CONTINUED SMALL POP (20 NORTH AND
30 SOUTH).

MON-FRI...GFS SHOWS THE WEAK BOUNDARY HANGING UP NEARLY EAST/WEST
FROM THE ATLANTIC TO ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS SHOWN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND PROVIDING A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.  PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED JUST A LITTLE ABOVE
AN INCH...SO NOT INCLINED TO PUT POPS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND WHAT WE
HAVE IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.  ONE EXCEPTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN
GFS HAS SHOWN THE PAST FEW RUNS A JET STREAK APPROACHING...AND WILL
JUST MENTION SMALL POPS FOR NOW.

MARINE...ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS AND
MODELS INDICATE WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY...ALBEIT
TURNING TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW.  WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL TROUGH.  MODELS THEN INDICATE
10 KNOT OR LESS WINDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB BB 068/088 065/084 066 6322
MCO BB 068/088 066/087 067 6422
MLB BB 070/088 067/084 068 5422

.MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
       FIRE WX WATCH SATURDAY ALL ZONES.

PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY
AVIATION/FIRE...WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
252000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1145 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2003

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A MOIST FLOW OF AIR BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY A STORM CENTER IN THE
OHIO VALLEY WAS PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT MIDDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING EASTWARD
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AND
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE COMPLEX TO THE NORTH MAY KICK OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS AND MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST.

ANY STORM THAT FORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES TODAY...WITH
WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA PRODUCING VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR
BOATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL POSE THE GREATEST
HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RL