Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
224 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COASTAL
VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES...

DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S THANKS TO A 12 TO 20 MPH SE TO S WIND
PULLING UP MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR DETECTING A LINE OF
SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NE FL/SE GA MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS MARION AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A
CLEARLY DEFINED LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW EXTENDING TO THE COAST FROM
AROUND VERO BEACH TO MELBOURNE. SOME CU WAS TRYING TO VERTICALLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGES...BUT WAS BEING SHEARED BY THE STRONG SW
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUOY 010 WAS RECORDING SE WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS AND 7 FOOT SEAS. BUOY 009...AT NOON...WAS RECORDING 4 TO 5
FOOT SEAS.

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS MARION
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND ITS EFFECT OVER NORTH LAKE...VOLUSIA AND
POSSIBLY SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS PLENTY
UNSTABLE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S...AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE
THE TRIGGER FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND NORTH CWA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL SURFACE STREAMLINES SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SAINT LUCIE NORTH AND OVER LAND
FROM NORTH BREVARD/CAPE AND THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTAL AREA. SO
FAR...SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW NOT MUCH GOING ON BUT...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY MAY BE JUST THE CATALYST TO FIRE OFF
SOME STORMS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NORTH. ONCE THE
PROSPECTIVE EVENING WEATHER IS OVER IS SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STAYING ABOVE 70.

NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER WILL BE A FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT 500MB
TEMPERATURE PROGS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL COOLING...-8 TO -10C ...
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.

FRONT SLOWS DOWN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OSCEOLA...
SOUTHERN BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IN THE SW TO NE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
A SURFACE REFLECTION OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. OLD FRONT
STARTS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE
FEATURE. A LITTLE EARLY TO TELL...MAV MOS ENDS AT 23/12Z...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SOUTH TO NORTH 40/30/20 POPS SPREAD FOR SUNDAY.
GFS DEVELOPS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND MOVES IT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS MONDAY. WESTERN EXTENSION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS DOWN THE PENINSULA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
KEEPS US IN AN ONSHORE FLOW...NE OVERNIGHT MON/TUESDAY TO SE/S
WEDNESDAY. A FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH AND VEERS WINDS MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY.

MARINE...WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND BUOY 009 SEA HEIGHT TRENDS. SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONE MAY HAVE MORE
OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
DROPS.

PRELIM...
DAB BB 072/084 064/080 060 4430
MCO BB 072/088 065/082 062 2430
MLB BB 074/087 068/082 066 3332

.MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET...
    ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR HIGH DISPERSION VALUES UNTIL SUNSET
       IN VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...LAKE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA AND NORTHERN
       BREVARD COUNTIES...
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR HIGH DISPERSION VALUES FRIDAY ALL
       COUNTIES.

PUBLIC/MARINE WX...WIMMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
202200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1205 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

.DAY ONE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD DETER SEA BREEZE
FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA COMBINING WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TOPPED WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT
COULD GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MORE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL OVER COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM ORMOND
BEACH TO SAINT LUCIE INLET WHERE SURFACE WIND CONVERENGE WILL BE
BEST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GARDEN VARIETY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE DAY TIME HEATING OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF ALL
ACTIVITY WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ALL STORMS WILL CONTAIN DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN FREQUENT OR EVEN EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY ENCLOSED BUILDING IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

FOR BOATING INTERESTS...BOATERS SHOULD KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER LAND...
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS
THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEY
MAY PRODUCE HAIL...34 KNOT WINDS OR GREATER AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO
SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET BEYOND
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED FOR YOUR COUNTY TODAY.

WIMMER