Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

CURRENTLY...AT 2 PM...SEA BRZ HAD MADE IT THROUGH DAB/COF...BUT
STILL HOLDING NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S
AT COF/DAB WHERE SEA BRZ MOVED THROUGH. HAD TO UPDT FOR UPPER 80S
TEMPS AT MLB/VRB/FPR WHERE S/SSW FLOW HAS HELD BACK SEA BRZ A BIT
LONGER.

TONIGHT...PLANNING ON SLGT CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES BASED ON LATE
AFTN CU FIELD AND EXPECTATION OF LATE SEA BRZ CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. FURTHER SOUTH WILL MAKE LAST MINUT CALL WHETHER LOW
EVENING POP IS WARRANTED.

THU...GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH H9
WINDS FROM S/SSW AT 25 KNOTS AND H8 WINDS AT 30 KNOTS. WILL LOW LVL
SSW FLOW...SEA BRZ SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THOUGH BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT
AND MAKE SLOW INLAND PROGRESS. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PWAT PROGS BUT WITH SOME INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GO WITH 20/30 RANGE FOR POPS MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN WITH PEAK
AFTN HEATING. H5 TEMPS STILL WARM...-5/-6 DEGS C PROGED BY ETA/NGM
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS. WILL AGAIN TAKE PEAK HEATING AND INTERIOR
AND LATE DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

THU NGT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD EARLY EVENING POPS. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME LOW STRATUS SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR LATE.

FRI...UPPER LVL S/W IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH STRONG
LOW LVL S/SW FLOW. SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE AND WILL NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SEA BRZ FORCING. MAIN PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
BAND LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND
MAY MAKE IT IN TWD NRN SECTIONS LATE. WILL GO WITH SLIGHTY HIGHER
POPS NORTH BUT KEEP IN THE CHC CATEGORY. MORE CLOUDINESS SHOULD DROP
A FEW DEGS FROM HIGH TEMPS BUT STILL IN THE MID 80S...TO UPPER 80S
SRN SECTIONS.

FRI NGT-SAT...PREFRONTAL MOISTURE BAND SLIPS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENINSULA FRI NGT AND WILL KEEP SCT POPS. ON SAT...WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO SRN ZONES AS WEAKENING FRONT MOVES DOWN THE PENINSULA AND
DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD.

SUN-WED...THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY AND NEAR THE LAKE TO ALLOW SLGT POPS FOR SUN THERE. NRN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS LOOK GOOD WITH PWATS DROPPING TO AN INCH OR LESS
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. MON-WED...SRN STREAM S/W APPROACHES SUN
NGT INTO MONDAY. WILL PROBABLY HAVE LOW POP AROUND LAKE OKEE WHERE
ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ISOLD ACTIVITY.
TUE-WED...WILL KEEP DRY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT LOW MEAN RH.

MARINE...PLAN TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AS SE FLOW
INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ON THU...WILL SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THU NGT/FRI...FLOW
WILL VEER FROM S TO SW AND WILL DROP BACK TO SCEC RANGE. WIND SHIFT
STILL PROGD FOR SAT NGT WITH WEAKENING FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS.

PRELIM...
DAB BB 071/086 070/085 066 15232
MCO BB 070/089 070/087 067 15232
MLB BB 074/086 072/085 069 15122=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE WX...VOLKMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY

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192130-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EST WED MAR 19 2003

.DAY ONE...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STEER ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP BACK TOWARD THE
EAST COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS TO 45 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAD INDOORS
IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA.

FOR BOATING INTERESTS...BOATERS SHOULD KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE TO
THE WEST AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER LAND...TRACK
EAST...AND MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEY
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
AND CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

AT AREA BEACHES...A GREATER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A PERSISTENT 2 TO 3 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL. RIP CURRENTS ARE NORMALLY MOST DANGEROUS DURING THE
TIME OF OUTGOING TIDE...AND NEAR PIERS AND JETTIES. THE OUTGOING TIDE
WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY.

CHECK WITH THE BEACH PATROL OR LIFEGUARDS ABOUT CONDITIONS IN THE
SURF ZONE BEFORE GOING INTO THE OCEAN TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

MRV

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

...SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING FROM INTERIOR AREAS TO THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER...

AT 500 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...FROM AROUND THE OCALA FOREST
THROUGH METRO ORLANDO...TO SAINT CLOUD...LAKE KISSIMMEE...AND AVON
PARK IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. MEANWHILE...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY TO THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER IN
NORTH BREVARD COUNTY...TO WEST MELBOURNE AND CONTINUED SOUTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 95 TO FELLSMERE IN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY.

THROUGH 700 PM...A COLLISION BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL OCCUR
FROM INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN SEMINOLE AND
ORANGE COUNTIES...TO NEAR THE OSCEOLA BREVARD COUNTY LINE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...AND ANY WHICH FORM WILL
MOVE BACK ACROSS VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES.

SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE SOME SMALL
HAIL.

CRISTALDI