Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EST TUE MAR 18 2003

CURRENTLY...AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHING OSCEOLA/OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK H7 VORT PROGD TO LIFT
NE. 12Z ETA/GFS RUNS SEEM TO FINALLY HAVE A BIT BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SLGT POP FOR EVENING ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN SECTIONS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

WED/THU...UPR CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE ON WED AND
EAST OF THE STATE ON THU. WARMEST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INLAND
WITH SE (ONSHORE) FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
RECORDS FOR ORLANDO INTL (MCO) INCLUDE 91 ON THE 19TH AND 90 ON THE
20TH...AND HIGHS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO THESE RECORDS...BUT MAY BE A
FEW DEGS SHORT.

MAIN FCST CONCERN IS PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WED-THU
AFTNS. MAIN FCST DIFFERENCE FOR WED IS ETA SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE (UP
TO H7) WITH MORE DEFINED SEA BRZ COLLISION LATE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...THAN DRIER NGM...AND DRIEST GFS. ALL THREE MODELS DO
GENERATE SOME QPF ACROSS THE INTERIOR SO AM LEANING TWD GOING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE LATE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WHERE SEA BRZ CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW LATE AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PLAN ON ALSO CUTTING CSTL TEMPS A TAD WITH 12Z RUNS LATCHING ON TO
ONSHORE FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY. WED NGT...WILL KEEP 10 PCT POP IN
FOR EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LATE NIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BEACHES BUT NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN ZFP AT THIS
TIME. ON THU...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS AND SE/S FLOW
INTERIOR SHOULD AGAIN BE FAVORED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORNING
ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST. WILL GO WITH 30 PCT. HIGHS SIMILIAR TO
WED ALONG THE COAST AND A FEW DEGS COOLER FOR THE INTERIOR.

FRI-TUE...NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND FRI NGT WITH SCT POPS.
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON SAT AND THEN DRY
FOR SUN. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM PROGD TO BEING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON MON AND THEN WILL DRY THINGS OUT AGAIN FOR DAY 7.

MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE TO 15 KNOTS WED AFN AND
PICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS LATE WED NGT. WILL KEEP WINDS 15-20 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NRN LEG ON THU AFTN 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN LEG. WINDS
WILL BECOME S-SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY.

PRELIM...
DAB BB 065/084 070/084 070 15111
MCO BB 067/090 070/088 070 15121
MLB BB 069/085 073/085 072 15211=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE WX...VOLKMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...SHARP

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
182200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EST TUE MAR 18 2003

.DAY ONE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE COAST FROM
MELBOURNE SOUTH TO STUART. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM SOUTHERN BREVARD TO MARTIN
COUNTY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL ALSO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WHERE SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 45 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. A FEW STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. HEAD INDOORS IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR
AREA.

AT AREA BEACHES...A GREATER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A PERSISTENT 3 FOOT NORTHEAST
SWELL. RIP CURRENTS ARE NORMALLY MOST DANGEROUS DURING THE TIME OF
OUTGOING TIDE...AND NEAR PIERS AND JETTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

VOLKMER

AMZ555-FLZ047-054-059-064-182215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
421 PM EST TUE MAR 18 2003

...STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE TREASURE COAST...

AT 420 PM...RADAR INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
REACHING NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS IN EXTREME
SOUTH BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES...AND FAST APPROACHING THE
COASTS OF ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. THE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH. AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE COAST AND
OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH 6 PM...THEY MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY HAIL OR A WATERSPOUT.

PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE COVER BEFORE STORMS ARE
OVERHEAD. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ANY FUTURE
STATEMENTS OF WARNINGS REGARDING THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

GLITTO