Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
115 PM EST MON MAR 17 2003

...A RETURN TO SUMMER FOR MID/LATE WEEK...

CURRENT...16Z KXMR RAOB SHOW THE AIR MASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED FOR THE
TIME BEING. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE CU FIELD PANCAKING OUT BELOW THE
WEAK H87-H85 INVERSION (WHICH IS MORE ISOTHERMAL) OF 1C. ROUGH
GUESS IS THAT WE WILL NEED TEMP OF 28C/82F IN ORDER FOR IT TO
BREAK. BUT SINCE THE CAP IS WEAK...WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ERODE. IN FACT...LAST FEW VIS IMAGES SHOW
THE CU FIELD RATHER LUMPY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FL...AND A FEW ECHOES
HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE CONVG ZONE IN POLK CO.

WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN AN EARLY POP FOR THE ACTIVITY NOW FORMING.
BASED ON LATEST SAT/LTG TRENDS...AM BECOMING UNSURE WHETHER THE
GOMEX ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AT ALL...OR IN
A MUCH WEAKENED STATE IF IT DOES. WILL REEVALUATE CLOSE TO ISSUANCE
TIME...BUT THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET WAY WITH WORDING POPS AS
EVENING.

TUE-THU...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS THE POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/STACKED DEEP LAYER LOW NORTH OF KMOB CONTINUING TO EJECT NNE
AS A SERIES OF VORTS BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE AND POTENT UPPER LVL
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH EVENTUALLY DRIFTS EWD
INTO THE CTRL U.S. THIS POPS A DECENT AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DLM RIDGE
OVER THE STATE...WHICH PORTENDS ANOTHER EARLY FORAY INTO SUMMER.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS A SLUG OF HIGHER PWAT AIR (1.25 - 1.5)
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TUE...HOWEVER DLM HEIGHTS WILL
ALSO BE RISING. CURRENT THINKING IS TO FOREGO THE 30 POPS ADVERTISED
BY THE MAV AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD. WILL INSERT A TOKEN 10
FOR THE CCF HOWEVER. STEAM BATH HEAT ON TAP FOR WED-THU. MEX TEMPS
SUFFERING FROM CLIMO BIAS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS U80S-90F OR SO
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA...WITH COASTAL AREAS GETTING A BREAK WITH
THE ECSB WED...BUT ONLY NEAR THE LAKE (IF AT ALL) THU.

FRI-MON...AFTER SEVERAL VORT CENTERS ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE LOW...
IT SLOWLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS NEWD AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DIVES
INTO THE SW CONUS. FLATTENING OF THE DLM RIDGE ACROSS FL WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR...AND ENOUGH MOISTENING MAY OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR POPS
FRI. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...
WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF TEMPS SOME SAT. THIS NEXT TROUGH
PROGRESSES EWD TO WHERE IT IMPACTS THE CWA BY THE END OF THE FCST
CYCLE. 12Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM THE 00Z GFS/GGEM AND NOW LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECM/UKM IN SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF COAST
LOW SUN WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE SE STATES MON. GIVEN THE SURPRISINGLY
GOOD MED RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THAT FAR OUT...AM GOING TO ACCEPT
THE SOLN AND INTRODUCE POPS ON DAY 7.

MARINE...WIND FIELD HAS INDEED RECOVERED TO A MODERATE SW FLOW. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...INCREASING TO
SCA CRITERIA BY THU/EARLY FRI BEFORE VEERING AND THEN WEAKENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH BY SAT.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB BB 064/087 067/088 071 31111
MCO BB 064/089 069/091 071 21111
MLB BB 067/087 070/089 072 31011     60=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE WX...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
172200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EST MON MAR 17 2003

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANY WHICH FORM WOULD MOVE INTO
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING
THE EAST COAST COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITION STORMS
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

MOVEMENT OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD ALLOW SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
MAINLY FROM EARLY EVENING ONWARD. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35 KNOTS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AT AREA BEACHES...A GREATER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY DUE TO A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SWELL OF 3 TO 4
FEET. RIP CURRENTS ARE NORMALLY MOST DANGEROUS DURING THE TIME OF
OUTGOING TIDE...AND NEAR PIERS AND JETTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WARNINGS BECOMES NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

CRISTALDI

FLZ047-172105-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EST MON MAR 17 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 317 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE STORM WILL BE...NEAR CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP AT 335 PM EST. NEAR
WEST MELBOURNE AT 345 PM EST. THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO MELBOURNE
AND THE PALM BAY AREA BETWEEN 345 PM AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS A STRONG STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

MRV