Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS PKG...AS IT IS BECMG MORE APPARENT THE BIG
QUESTION IS NOT IF BUT WHEN THE TSTMS ARE GOING TO HIT CEN FL.
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB HAMPERING HEATING IN THE
NORTH AND TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 70 MCO NORTHWARD. FURTHER SOUTH THE
SUN HAS BROKE OUT AND BOTH EC AND WC SEA BREEZES ARE MVG INLAND. NOT
MUCH CONVECTION YET OVR CEN FL...BUT STRONG CONVECTION IS FIRING OVR
SRN FL WERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THESE STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG
THE SEA BREEZES TO THE SOUTH...BUT ALSO SEEM TO BE FORMING ALONG A
LARGE SCALE TROF (SUDO WARM FRONT) BOUNDARY SEPARATING SRLY FLOW OVR
SRN FL AND THE KEYS FROM ERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OLD WEAK FRONT TO THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS IN ADDITION TO THE LINGERING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT.

IN ADDITION LATEST WV IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE S/WV
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CEN GOMEX W/ LOTS OF CONVECTION FIRING JUST
AHEAD OF THE S/WV IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE. THE GFS SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST TIMING ON THIS FEATURE AND IT SHOWS PART OF IT
MOVING ACROSS E CEN AS EARLY AS 6Z TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
FOR MON AS WELL. THIS IS SOME OF THE MOST IMPRESSIVE UPR DYNAMICS
THIS FAR SOUTH THIS SEASON...AND MOS AGREES SHOWING LIKELY POPS MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AND MON. ITS DIFFICULT TO SAY IF THE STORMS WILL
COME IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OVERNIGHT AND MON...OR IF IT WILL BE ONE BIG
EVENT THAT STABILIZES US OUT BY MON...BUT THINK HIGH (LIKELY) POPS
ARE IN ORDER BOTH PERIODS...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING WITH TIME MON.

TUE-THU...BY MON NIGHT THE S/WV MVS BY W/ DRIER AIR MVG IN...HOWEVER
MODELS NOW SHOW SOME MOISTURE RETURNING FM THE SOUTH BY TUE AFTN.
DEBATED INTRODUCING SMALL SMALL POPS AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH TUE THRU
THU FOR AFTN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION (ALTHOUGH NO EC BREEZE EXPECTED
TUES)...BUT TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT AS AN H5 RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPR TROF DIGGING AND CUTTING
OFF OVR THE CEN PLAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS THESE DAYS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAY NEED
TO INSERT SOME POPS THESE PERIODS IN A LATER FORECAST. THE BUILDING
UPR RIDGE AND SSW FLOW WILL PROMOTE SOME HOT TEMPS TUE THRU THU AS
WELL AND WOULD NOT DOUBT IS SOME AREAS SEE NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS.

BEYOND FRI...SLOW MOVING...POTENT CUT-OFF OVER THE LOWER/CEN PLAINS
WILL LIFT OUT AND SACRIFICE ITSELF TO THE STRONG ATL RIDGE FRI. AS
IT DOES IT WILL FORCE THE RIDGE A BIT EAST ALLOWING SOME H5
HEIGHT/TEMP FALLS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH W/ INCREASING MOISTURE.
ALSO...A JET CORE WILL MOVE TO THE ATL COAST W/ THE RRQ MVG ACROSS
NRN FL FRI. CHANCE RWS/TRWS FRI AND SAT LOOKS GOOD...FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHT COOLING SAT INTO SUN.

MARINE...SOME CONTINUED SWELL...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
BENIGN NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE ASSOC W/ TSTM ACTIVITY.

DAB TB 066/080 065/086 068 773
MCO TB 067/082 065/089 069 773
MLB TB 068/082 067/088 070 773

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE WX...GITTINGER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
162200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1158 AM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES DEVELOP. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST HEATING WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORM WILL BE
ACROSS AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH WILL ALSO PRODUCE A VERY SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND
BARRIER ISLANDS...AND SPREAD INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND WATCH THE
SKIES TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR APPROACHING STRONG STORMS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCLEAR...HOWEVER SOME OF THE QUICKER MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. IF
THE SYSTEM MOVES AT A SLOWER PACE...THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

A GREATER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO EXIST TODAY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET. RIP CURRENTS
TEND TO BE STRONGEST AND MOST COMMON NEAR PIERS AND JETTIES...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF OUTGOING TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A PERSISTENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE STORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE MONDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS EVENING IF A
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING IS ISSUED.

MJG

FLZ064-162100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HAIL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
318 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

...STRONG STORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL HEADING TOWARD
MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 316 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL FROM 6 MILES SOUTH
OF PORT MAYACA TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNATHAN DICKINSON STATE PARK
...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE HAIL INCLUDE
PORT MAYACA...HOBE SOUND...PORT SALERNO AND PORT SEWALL.

IF THE STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

CRISTALDI