Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 18, 2003, 5:42 PM EDT for Lake County, Florida. It was in force for 63 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2003, 5:42 PM EDT (21:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 18, 2003, 6:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 63 min
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Lake County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1306 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -19 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 807 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 3 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 30 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 28 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WUUS52 KMLB 182142
SVRMLB
FLC069-182245-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
539 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
* UNTIL 645 PM EDT
* AT 540 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THE FIRST WAS
14 MILES SOUTH OF CLERMONT...OR ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF MGM STUDIOS
...ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY LINE.
THE SECOND WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST LAKE COUNTY ALONG THE POLK
COUNTY LINE. BOTH STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.
* THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREAD NORTH TOWARD CLERMONT
AND GROVELAND THROUGH 615 PM EDT. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. IF
THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR.
LAT...LON 2832 8171 2832 8178 2837 8183 2832 8188
2838 8198 2853 8198 2868 8188 2868 8168
$$
CRISTALDIWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 18, 2:20 PM EDT, 3 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 2:20 PM EDT, 3 hours 22 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 220 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003 DEEP CONVECTION NOW UNDERWAY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM VOLUSIA TO MARTIN COUNTY. 15Z XMR SOUNDING INDICATING NEAR 2.2 INCH PCP WATER AMOUNTS. SLOW INLAND PUSH TO SEA BREEZE AND WEAK SW TO NE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL COUNTIES ACTIVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE MAIN CONCERN. PLAN ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG COASTAL CTYS THIS EVE. BREEZE/BNDRY COLLSION STILL LIKELY FROM CENTRAL VOLUSIA CTY TO NEAR LK OKEECHOBEE. TUE-THU...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN STATES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN. SEMI-PERMANENT ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH AXIS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STAY QUITE MOIST (PW AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES)...SO SCATTERED POPS LOOK LIKE THE WAY TO GO. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS IN WEAK FLOW. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. FRI-MON...WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES BUT WEAKENS AS IT RUNS INTO RIDGE OFFSHORE. FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST STATES BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE PENINSULA. RIDGE AXIS WILL RESPOND BY SINKING SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTH. NOT MUCH VARIABILITY IN THE MREF MEMBERS SO WILL BASE FORECAST LARGELY ON INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME. MARINE...WITH RIDGE AXIS CLOSE BY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. SWELLS NOT A FACTOR SO WIND WAVES ARE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO SEAS. WAVE WATCH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB BE 073/088 073/089 073 343 MCO TT 074/090 073/090 074 353 MLB EE 074/089 073/088 074 343 VRB BE 074/089 074/088 074 343 .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. SHORT TERM...BLOTTMAN LONG TERM...HIRSCH
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 18, 6:00 AM EDT, 11 hours 42 minutes before
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 181900- EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 600 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2003 .DAY ONE...TODAY ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... INCREASED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE AFTERNOON STORMS THAN YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BOUNDARY. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY COLLISION OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO OSCEOLA COUNTY. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE WITHIN RANGE OF A THUNDERSTORM AND SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUICK 2 INCH DOWNPOURS...WHICH WOULD AGGRAVATE STANDING WATER PROBLEMS IN SOME AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: BY MID WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RL
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 2:12 PM EDT, 3 hours 30 minutes before
FLZ059-181845- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 212 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003 ...STRONG STORMS WITH FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER EASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY... AT 209 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION EQUIPMENT INDICATED A STORM WITH FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER FORT PIERCE SOUTH. THE STORM WAS DRIFTING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE LIGHTNING STORM INCLUDE INDIAN RIVER ESTATES...FORT PIERCE NORTH...PORT SAINT LUCIE RIVER PARK AND SAINT LUCIE AIRPORT. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES... FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A GOLF COURSE OFFER NO PROTECTION. 15
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 2:56 PM EDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before
FLZ059-064-181945- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 256 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY AND EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY... AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 OVER PORT SAINT LUCIE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF MARTIN COUNTY. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS INCLUDE NORTH RIVER SHORES AND PALM CITY. THE STORM WILL ALSO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. 15
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 3:19 PM EDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before
FLZ047-182000- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 319 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL JUST WEST OF PALM BAY... AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER PALM BAY...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. 15
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 3:36 PM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before
FLZ064-182015- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 336 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY... AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH 7 MILES WEST OF PALM CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR 2 INCHES AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES. IF THIS STORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING BETWEEN PORT MAYACA AND INDIANTOWN AS WAS DRIFTING WEST. IF THESE STORMS STRENGTHEN FURTHER...WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. 15
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 4:36 PM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before
FLZ053-182115- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 436 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003 ...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND INTENSE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY... AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTING AND INTENSE RAINFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THE STORMS WILL AFFECT LAKE KISSIMMEE TO KENANSVILLE AND EVENTUALLY HOLOPAW THROUGH 515 PM EDT. JP
The office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2:05 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | MLB | 85 min | |
| Aug 18, 5:35 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | MLB | Orange, Osceola | 40 min |
| Aug 18, 6:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Orange | 63 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.