Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

CURRENT...DEEP H5 TROF EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NE GULFMEX HAS
SUPPRESSED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
HAS SET UP MODERATE SW STEERING FLOW OVER THE AREA. HIGH CAPES AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS SET OFF A LONG BAND OF STRONG TSTMS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM. MANY HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
ROTATION AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WATERSPOUTS.

INLAND...CONVECTION OVER THE WEST COAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS NOW AGAIN SPREAD NE IN MODERATE STEERING FLOW. MORNING SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWS OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE CAPE. SOME OF THE DRYING SEEN IN
THE NE GULF WV IMAGE IS REFLECTED IN THE TBW SOUNDING AS PWS HAVE
DROPPED WELL BELOW 2 INCHES. THIS ALONG WITH A STORM MOTION NEAR 25
MPH MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS SPREADING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DEEP EAST COAST H5 TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN. UNTIL THEN... THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PENINSULA ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST SURFACE AND STEERING FLOW.
SHOULD INHIBIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST AGAIN ON
SUNDAY BUT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULFMEX
WEAKENS... WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND
SHOULD SEE SOME ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE GFS DEVELOPS THE TROPICAL
LOW NOW MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...CLOSING IT OFF AND SWEEPING IT OFF THE ECFL COASTAL WATERS
BY THURSDAY MORNING.  TOO EARLY FOR THAT DRASTIC A CHANGE IN THE
EXTENDED SO WILL SEE IF THE FEATURE PERSIST.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LAST MRF RUN IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS DEVELOPING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING ECFL. SHOWS
UPPER EAST COAST TROF GIVING WAY TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST INTO FLORIDA WITH AN INVERTED TROPICAL TROUGH CROSSING FLORIDA
IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EAST FLOW
THROUGH PERIOD ARGUES FOR SCATTERED RANGE PRECIP WITH CLIMO
TEMPS.

MARINE...SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER GA/SC WILL INCREASE SW GRADIENT
OVER THE MARINE AREA. STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING
SIGNS OF ROTATION AND PILOT REPORTS OFF PBI INDICATE WATERSPOUTS.
ADDITIONAL SPOUTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SUNDAY. DEVELOPING CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR WILL MOVE OFF SHORE BY MID AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. FASTER MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.PRELIMS
DAB TT 073/090 073/089 072 36343
MCO TT 075/089 074/090 074 36343
MLB TT 075/089 074/089 075 46343
VRB TT 090/074 089/075 089 44343   64

.MLB...NONE.

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM...DECKER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
091900-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1048 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN TODAY.  MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW STORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...MOST AREAS
HAVE SATURATED SOIL.  ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY WILL QUICKLY AGGRAVATE
STANDING WATER PROBLEMS IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS.  DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS
AND PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES...RESULTING IN
MORE WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING.

ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  SEEK SAFE
SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING OR AUTOMOBILE AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN
APPROACHING STORM.  BEACH GOERS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL...AS
STORMS WILL APPROACH QUICKLY FROM THE WEST.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONG
STORMS DEVELOP...AND RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE...INCLUDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RL

FLZ047-054-059-064-147-091730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1227 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FROM
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET...

AT 1223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
QUICK MOVING STORMS OVER AND JUST INLAND OF THE COAST FROM BREVARD
COUNTY TO MARTIN COUNTY.

THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY CROSS THE COAST.  FUNNEL
CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

MOVE INSIDE A SECURE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

RL

FLZ041-045-046-053-141-147-091815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
OSCEOLA...EASTERN ORANGE...MOVING TOWARDS NORTH BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 113 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF STRONG STORMS MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH FROM
KISSIMMEE TO KENANSVILLE.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY WHILE INTENSIFYING

IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
ALSO OCCUR.  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE STANDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

RL

FLZ045-047-053-141-147-091900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
214 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR
TITUSVILLE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDE TITUSVILLE...MIMS..SCOTTSMOOR...THE
CANAVERAL NATIONAL SEA SHORE AND OAK HILL.

RL

FLZ053-058-092030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MVOING
INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
FROM NEAR LAKE KISSIMMEE TO 5 MILES WEST OF BASINGER TO JUST WEST OF
OKEECHOBEE. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. RESIDENTS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE APPROACH OF THESE STORMS AND HEAD INDOORS AT
THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

BCH