Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO LCLY NUMEROUS STORMS ONGOING ATTM WITH
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS PUSHED WEST OF THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ONCE AGAIN...BUT
WITH A LITTLE STRONGER WRLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW
(10-15K) AND PRECIP COVRG A BIT LESS THAN MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHEST
COVERAGE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS EVENING...AND WILL RANGE POPS FROM
20 INTR TO 40 COAST...AND LET EVENING SHIFT TWEAK (PERHAPS UPWARD
10% INLAND AS NEEDED. HAVE NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A SCOSH BELOW
GUIDANCE AS OFFSHORE FLOW USUALLY NETS MINS BELOW 75F SAVE FOR LOCAL
EFFECTS (E.G. URBAN HEAT AT ORL/SFB...LAKES AT LEE). IN FACT BOTH
VRB AND FPR BOTTOMED OUT AT 71F THIS MORNING.

WED-FRI...
THE SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIAN WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TRAPPED TO
THE EAST BY AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
AND TO THE SOUTH BY THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE.  IN
TURN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE FL STRAITS/SRN PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A SWRLY H85-H50 STEERING
FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA...A PATTERN THAT FAVORS THE EAST COAST FOR
HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE.  MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE
REGION AS DRIER AIR OVER THE LWR BAHAMA BANK WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH
BY THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZES TO FORM WED/THU AFTERNOON...WITH
THE SW FLOW PINNING THE ECSB CLOSER TO THE COAST.  HIGH MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS AFTN/SCT
EVENING TSTMS...WILL KEEP 60/70 IN PLACE THROUGH THU.

AN H25 JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE WRN U.S. WILL AMPLIFY AS IT RIDES
OVER THE CONTINENTAL HIGH OVER THE SW U.S.  AS IT DOES...THE JET MAX
WILL DEVELOP A STRONG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK TO A MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OVER GA/SC.  THE 12Z ETA MODEL
IS INDICATING A SIMILAR LOW...BUT MORE OF AN EXTENSION OF A TROF
OVER TX.  NEVERTHELESS...BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING THE AXIS OF THE
H85-H50 TROF PUSHING FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AS FAR
AS PENSACOLA.  ECMWF MODEL IS FURTHER EAST AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
FAR.  WILL INCREASE FRI POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY AS THE TROF BEGINS
TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE ATLC RIDGE...A MECHANISM THAT EFFICIENTLY
SQUEEZES THE MOISTURE OUT OVER INTERACTION ZONE...I.E. THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

SAT-TUE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
SPOT LOW WILL LIFT NE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SWRLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE...BUT THE H85-H50 TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE SRN PENINSULA.  EXTENDED
MODELS INDICATE THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE PINCHING
OFF THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE TROF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
ALLOWING A SLOW NWD PROGRESSION BY THE ATLC RIDGE.

MARINE...
S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH OFFSHORE MOVING
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS W/FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF PUSHES UP AGAINST
THE ATLC RIDGE...BUT TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO THE AVN/ETA SOLUTIONS OF
20KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB TT 073/092 073/092 072 47464
MCO TT 074/092 073/092 073 36363
MLB TT 073/090 074/091 073 47464
VRB TT 072/090 072/090 071 47464   81

.MLB...

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
052100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

...STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FORMS NEAR THE COAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL APPROACH AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL ALLOW SOME AREAS TO SEE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THESE RAINFALL RATES WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED AND TEMPORARY FLOODING OF ROADS...LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...WHICH MAY BECOME EXCESSIVE IN STRONGER STORMS. IF
YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...STRONG STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALONG AREA BEACHES A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST DUE
TO A 2 TO 3 FOOT SWELL. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGEST DURING THE
OUTGOING TIDES. SWIMMERS ARE ADVISED TO SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONG
STORMS DEVELOP...AND RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
INCLUDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

ALMEIDA/HIRSCH

FLZ045-053-052045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL OVER POINCIANA
PLACE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STORM WILL BE...NEAR CAMPBELL AT 430 PM EDT AND NEAR KISSIMMEE
AT 440 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
ORANGE COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY THROUGH 5 PM AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

15