Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 31, 2003, 5:47 PM EDT for Osceola County, Florida. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 31, 2003, 5:47 PM EDT (21:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 31, 2003, 6:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 43 min
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Osceola County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1109 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -30 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 703 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 4 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 6 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
275 WUUS52 KMLB 312147 SVRMLB FLC097-312230- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 544 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA * UNTIL 630 PM EDT * AT 535 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY OR 12 MILES WEST OF LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP. THIS STORM WAS DEVELOPING SOUTH DOWN TO ABOUT YEEHAW JUNCTION. THIS STORM PRODUCED DIME SIZE HAIL IN BITHLO EARLIER THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LAT...LON 2833 8091 2830 8111 2778 8107 2782 8089 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 31, 2:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 2:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 22 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 225 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2003 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT/TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE LINE OF STORMS ASCD WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ANTICIPATE A MERGER OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP EVENING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FRI/SAT...RIDGE AXIS QUASISTATIONARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW NORTH DRIFT INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POP FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH SCATTERED RANGE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION CONTRIBUTING TO A GOOD COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTH COAST IN THE LATE AFTN AS THE EAST COAST SEA BRZ MOVES INLAND. SHOULD ALSO SEE STORMS DRIFT BACK TWD THE COAST IN THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM BREVARD NORTHWARD WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. BASED ON NORTHWARD DRIFT OF RIDGE AXIS WILL USE LOWER POPS ALONG TREASURE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDUCE PRECIP COVERAGE. SUN-MON...INFLUENCE OF STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP SCT RANGE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH SLY TO SLIGHT SW COMPONENT STEERING FLOW HIGHEST POPS USED FOR NORTH COAST AND ALL OF INTERIOR BUT STILL REMAINING IN THE SCT CATEGORY. EXTENDED...BY AROUND MIDWEEK AXIS OF BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DEEP EASTERLIES RETURN TO THE AREA. EXTENDED GUID SHOWS INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL WAVES APCHG CARIB REGION SO FORECAST SUBJECT TO CHANGE SHOULD A WAVE APPROACH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SCT PRECIP AND WILL LEAVE FOR NOW. .MARINE...WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL SEE SPEEDS REMAINING GENERALLY ARND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST DURING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB TT 072/090 073/090 073 45343 MCO TT 073/092 073/092 074 55353 MLB TT 072/090 075/089 074 55352 VRB TT 072/091 075/090 074 44342 44 .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. SHORT TERM...KELLY LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 10:08 AM EDT, 7 hours 39 minutes before
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 312000- EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1008 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2003 .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING: LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION TO BEGIN BY MIDDAY...A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. A FEW STORMS WILL FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS INLAND...THEN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL TRY TO PUSH THE STORMS BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FROM THIS MORNINGS WEATHER BALLOONS SUGGESTS MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. AS BOUNDARIES COLLIDE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND COIN SIZED HAIL. ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WHICH MAY BECOME EXCESSIVE IN STRONGER STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF NO SHELTER IS NEARBY...CROUCH IN A LOW SPOT AWAY FROM TREES AND OTHER TALL OBJECTS. WATER CONDUCTS ELECTRICITY... SO SWIMMERS SHOULD GET OUT OF THE WATER AND IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING OR CAR. PICNIC SHELTERS AND DUGOUTS MAY KEEP YOU DRY BUT THEY OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE LIGHTNING DANGER. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAIN TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. AND BOATERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND MOVE BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTH SATURDAY...PRODUCING THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK SOUTH BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING STORMS TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP...AND RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. KELLY
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 3:14 PM EDT, 2 hours 33 minutes before
FLZ141-147-312000- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 314 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2003 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY... AT 305 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL 6 MILES WEST OF EDGEWATER...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD MAYTOWN AND PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 3:20 PM EDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before
FLZ059-312000- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 320 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2003 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WESTERN MARTIN COUNTY... AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS IS PART OF A CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WEST OF I 95. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WEST OF VERO BEACH TO PALM BAY. THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT IN THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING.
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 3:50 PM EDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before
FLZ046-312030- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 350 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2003 ...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL SEMINOLE COUNTY... AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER GENEVA... DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AND SOME FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND SMALL STREAMS.
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 4:30 PM EDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
FLZ045-053-312115- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 430 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2003 ...STRONG STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OSCEOLA AND SOUTH ORANGE COUNTIES... AT 420 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING WEST INTO CENTRAL ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER CLERMONT WAS PUSHING EAST OF SAINT CLOUD AND NARCOOSSEE...WITH A THIRD BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF SEMINOLE COUNTY. THESE THREE BOUNDARIES WERE CONVERGING OVER CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF PINE GROVE AND ALLIGATOR LAKE...AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE MARY JANE. AS THESE BOUNDARIES MERGE THROUGH 530 PM...STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...MANY OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. PEOPLE IN THIS VICINITY ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER INDOORS BEFORE THE STORMS DEVELOP...AND TO REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BRAGAW
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 5:08 PM EDT, 39 minutes before
FLZ045-046-312200- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 508 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2003 ...STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY... SOUTHERN SEMINOLE COUNTY... AT 505 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION EQUIPMENT INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING EXTENDING FROM WEKIVA SPRINGS TO BITHLO...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE LIGHTNING STORM INCLUDE UNION PARK AND UNIVERSITY PARK. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE OFFER NO PROTECTION. MOST PEOPLE WHO ARE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN FLORIDA ARE STRUCK EITHER PRIOR TO THE RAIN REACHING THEIR LOCATION...OR AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED. BRAGAW
The office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 4:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Seminole | 47 min |
| Jul 31, 5:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Orange | 47 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.