Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2003

FORECAST FOCUS IS TWOFOLD WITH SYS COMING DOWN IN NW FLOW TNGT.
FIRST IS EXTENT OF TSTMS AND SECOND IS WIND ON BACKSIDE OF LOW LTR
TNGT/ERLY SAT.

STG SFC LOW IS NOW INTO NW WI WITH CDFNT TRAILING SWD TO MO. TSTMS
ARE TRYING TO DVLP ALG AND AHD OF FNT. LOTS OF FAVORABLE FACTORS
OVR CWA THIS EVE TO SUSTAIN OR INCR STORM INTENSITY. CDFNT PRBLY NOT
COMING THRU ERN CWA TIL AFT 00Z. STG VORT CNTR...GENERATING IMPRV
COMMA CLD ON STLT LOOPS...TRACKS DOWN THRU WRN WI INTO NRN IL.
NARROW BAND OF MSTR AND INSTAB JUST AHD OF FNT...DWPTS INTO THE
60S AND LI/S ARND -2 OR -3. H7 OMEGA INCREASES MARKEDLY IN THE EAST
AS WELL. WL HANG ON TO TSTM THREAT THIS EVE TIL FNT PASSES AND
MENTION PSBLTY OF SVR IN ACCORDANCE WITH SWODY1 AND RECENT SWOMCD.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO INCRG WNDS IN TIGHTENING GRAD BHND DEPARTING SFC
LOW. TROFINESS ARND THE LOW ITSELF DOES NOT REALLY CLR THE AREA UNTIL
AFT MIDNITE. SO WL WAIT TIL THEN TO APPRECIABLY CRANK UP THE SPEEDS.
DUE TO THE LATENESS OF THE HR WL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW.
ANOTHER REASON FOR THAT IS THAT WE MAY GET EVEN HIGHER WNDS WITH SOME
OF THE TSTMS COMING THRU THIS EVE. STG WNDS SHUD THEN CONTINUE WELL
INTO SAT ESPCLY IN ERN CWA AS DEEPER MIXING ALLOWS FOR BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WNDS ALOFT.

QUIETER WX THEN RTNS WITH COOLISH TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NGT DUE
TO CLR SKIES AND DCRG WINDS UNDER SFC HI PRES.

.MKX...NONE.

NJ

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-311000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
MODEST INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN INTO OHIO. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WOOD

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-302130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
359 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2003

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
JUNEAU AND EASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES...AND WILL MOVE EAST AT 45
MPH INTO SOUTHERN SAUK AND NORTHERN IOWA COUNTIES. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT A MERRIMAC TO BLACK EARTH LINE BY 430 PM.

ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM ACROSS NORTHERN JUNEAU COUNTY MAY MOVE
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AFTER 430 PM. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM...SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE.

WOOD