Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
310 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2003

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS FORECAST...WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS WITH MID ATL RIDGE BRIDGING OVER INTO THE PENINSULA.
SFC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN GULF. AT THE
UPR LVLS...ANALYSIS SHOWS UPR LVL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WITH WEAK RIDGE ALONG THE PENINSULA AND TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE US COAST. THROUGH TOMORROW...UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOV
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CNTRL GULF AS IT WEAKENS WITH UPR RIDGE AXIS
ALONG THE PENINSULA FINALLY DISSIPATING AND UPR TROUGH ACROSS E
COAST MOVING SE INTO THE ATL AS IT DEEPENS. THE LOW LVL RIDGE
EXTENDING NE TO SE ALONG THE EAST WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH
JUST ABOUT 700 MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. HAVING SAID
THAT...WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 1.6 INCHES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD AND PCPN LAST FEW DAYS WILL FORECAST POPS OF AROUND 50
INTERIOR...20S AND 30S ALONG EAST COAST...AND 40S WEST COAST NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH C-BRZ CONTINUING TO BE MAIN TRIGGERING
MECHANISM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE EAST
COAST SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ALOFT
TOMORROW. THAT...COMBINED WITH LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE EAST THROUGH 8
KFT OR SO WILL RESULT IN A STORM MOTION THAT WILL GENERALLY BE NE
BUT SLOW. SO GIVEN THAT H5 TEMPS ARE RUNNING AROUND -8 TO -9 CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
BE MAIN PROBLEM. BY WEDNESDAY...UPR WNDS SHOULD BACK MORE FROM THE
WEST AGAIN AS TROUGH MOVE FAR OFFSHORE AND NEXT UPR LVL TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEEPEN INTO THE SE. THEREFORE...BETTER CHANCE PERHAPS FOR
METRO AREAS BUT NOT MUCH MORE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT TEMP FCST.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY...GFS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH
APPROACHING EAST COAST DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG SFC BNDRY IN THE NE
GULF COAST. THIS LOW IS FCST TO MOVE ALONG MID ATL COAST WITH
TRAILING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGH INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS. DESPITE THE WEAKENING...WE SHOULD
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGH POPS PARTICULARLY FOR FRI WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE CWA BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WILL STAY IN THE
HIGH END OF SCT POPS FOR NOW UNTIL AT LEAST THE TREND BECOMES MORE
DEFINITE. THEN WEAK HIGH IS FCST TO MOVE EAST ALONG NORTHERN GULF N
OF CWA SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MSTR
RETURN BY MONDAY RETURNING TO SCT POPS.

.MARINE...
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT WND FCST EXCEPT FOR
CHANGE TO REFLECT WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT/TROUGH BY END OF THE WEEK IN
THE EXTENDED. THE BOTTOM LINE IS NO HIGHLIGHT FORESEEN THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

PBI BB 075/087 074/086 073 52222334
FLL BB 076/086 075/086 074 52222334
MIA BB 076/088 074/087 073 52222334
APF BT 073/087 071/086 071 52343434

.MIA...NONE.

FLZ063-066>075-191500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SOUTH FLORIDA. AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEACHES AND
METRO AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES THEN MOVE WEST ACROSS THE EVERGLADES. OTHER
STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP EVEN FURTHER WEST. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
STORMS TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE DAY COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS
AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS WHEREVER STORMS PERSIST FOR MORE THAN AN
HOUR OR SO.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.