Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
300 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS ERN U.S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GULF
ATTM AND INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IR SHOWING A LARGE MCS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS.

SHORT TERM...FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW (AT LEAST SINCE I HAVE BEEN
BACK) GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THIS SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OVER S. FL
WITH A HEAVY PRECIP SITUATION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. GFS
INITIALIZATION OF THE SHORT WAVE QUITE GOOD...A BIT TO THE NORTH
MAYBE...BUT GOOD NONETHELESS. THAT...AND THE MODELS PERSISTENCE...
GIVE ME MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST THAN YESTERDAYS RUN. ETA
ALSO SHOWS NOW POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WED NIGHT/THU...IN
THAT WAY GETTING CLOSER TO GFS. BUT ETA MOVES THE SHORT WAVE TOO
SLOW AND KEEP US UNDER ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT WAVES DO
NOT MOVE THAT SLOW, SO I LIKE GFSS SOLUTION BETTER. IN ANY CASE MY
POPS ARE GOING TO INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TONIGHT TO
LIKELY WED NIGHT/THU THEN BACK DOWN TO SCT THU NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SITUATION WITH AND AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT AND LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES.

MARINE...GFS HAS THE WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH GFS SOLUTION...I THINK IT
MAY BE OVERDOING IT AND WILL GO WITH LOWER WIND SPEED. HOWEVER WINDS
WILL STILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE WED NIGHT SO SCA WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED WED FOR ALL WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...MEAN RH TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE 35% THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED...AFTER THE BIG PRECIP EVENT MENTION ABOVE...THINGS WILL
RETURN MORE TO CLIMO WITH ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING WWD THROUGH THE
PENINSULA...SE FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTERIOR SECTIONS/
NIGHTTIME COASTAL SHOWERS EAST SECTIONS.

PBI TT 073/084 070/087 074 26754
FLL TT 074/084 073/087 075 26754
MIA TT 074/085 073/087 075 26754
APF TB 070/083 073/082 073 06534

.MIA...NONE.

GARCIA

FLZ063-066>075-291500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...PRIMARILY ACROSS PALM BEACH...HENDRY
AND GLADES COUNTIES. THE IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SOME SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN COVER THE AREA

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.