Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
300 PM EST MON MAR 17 2003

THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. IN ADDITION...THE MID/UPPER LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL WITH H5 TEMPS REGISTERING -13 FROM KEY WEST. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS NICE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SEVERAL SEVERE
STORMS HAVE POPPED RECENTLY WITH HAIL REPORTED. THERE IS SOME
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST WITH LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
CONITNUING TO BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN AS A
RESULT WITH NORTHERN ZONES FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ACTION.

FOR MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS OUT AS A
WELL DEVELOPED CLOSED LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL
MEAN RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
WARM DAYTIME TEMPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES
WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME RAIN PATTERNS...FAVORING
INLAND AREAS FOR THE MOST PART.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...AND MOVING A SURFACE FRONT INTO
FLORIDA. FRIDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD. THE
EXTENDED GFS SHOWS THE FRONT GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KEYS
ALTHOUGH IN A WASHED OUT FORM. WILL LESSEN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND A DROP TEMPS ONE CATEGORY GOING INTO SUNDAY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXTENDED GFS SHOWS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LOW
DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THAN THIS
WEEKS...SHAPING UP INTO A WET START FOR THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...THE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN AS RIDGING BUILDS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP AND SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT...SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN MARINE ZONE TO INCLUDE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...WITH GENERALLY WEST FLOW OTHERWISE.

FIRE...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
PBI BB 070/087 073/087 075 5641012
FLL BB 072/088 076/088 078 5631002
MIA BB 071/088 077/088 077 5631001
APF BB 069/084 072/087 075 5630011

.MIA...NONE

FLZ063-066>075-171700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HANDEL