Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
207 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2003

FRONT APPEARS TO BE SAGGING A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD FROM THIS
MORNING...BUT SURE ISNT GETTING ANYWHERE QUICKLY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
A MAX IN NE AR RIGHT NOW...WITH A WEAKER CENTER OVER SW AR.

COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE IN PAH AND OHX CWAS...APPEARS THAT HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 40-50 PCT
AREAL COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA RIGHT NOW. MUCH OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING...PROBABLY BETWEEN 02Z
AND 04Z. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES...THE HEAVIEST CELLS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. MUCH OF CWA
EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS SEEN 1/2 INCH OR LESS IN LAST 24 HOURS.
CURRENT PLANS ARE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONES TONIGHT...WITH
LIKELY POPS...BUT NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH.

ALL MODELS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE CALENDAR DAY
WEDNESDAY...NGM/GFS THROUGH MEM IN THE MORNING...ETA 6-12 HOURS
LATER. FRONT SHOULD BE WELL CLEAR OF CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WE
PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE RAPID CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...FROM CHANCE
RANGE...WITH DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
DRY THROUGH END OF FORECAST PACKAGE AS HIGH SETS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES...AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN TO REACH
MIDDLE 80S. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THURSDAY. FORECAST IS ACTUALLY
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT OUR TEMPS
AGREE WELL WITH MOST OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.MEG...NONE.

WAGNER

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-030900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
600 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE. COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE POSSIBLE
IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-030100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
544 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2003

...FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...

A FUNNEL CLOUD HAS BEEN REPORTED BY A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
EMPLOYEE IN CLAY COUNTY ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO DAMAGE HAS
BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS FUNNEL.

METEOROLOGISTS CALL WHIRLWIND-LIKE FUNNELS OF THIS NATURE COLD AIR
FUNNELS. THEY ARE CAUSED BY MECHANISMS DIFFERENT FROM THOSE THAT
CAUSE TORNADOES...SO THEY DO NOT HAVE THE SAME DEADLY POTENTIAL.

COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE CAUSED BY MODERATE TO STRONG TEMPERATURE
CONTRASTS BETWEEN THE AIR AT GROUND-LEVEL AND THE AIR AT HIGHER
ALTITUDES. THEY LAST ONLY A BRIEF TIME AND SELDOM REACH THE GROUND.
THESE FUNNELS ARE MOST OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS BUT
OCCASIONALLY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR COLD AIR FUNNELS IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
SO THERE MAY BE MORE OCCURRENCES UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

YOU SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF ONE OF THE FUNNELS
PASSES NEAR WHERE YOU ARE. AVOID OPEN AREAS WHERE LOOSE OBJECTS
COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT SHOULD ONE OF THE FUNNELS EXTEND TO THE GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR UPDATES ON THE FUNNEL CLOUDS.

SWC