Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
215 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z SFC MAP PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER C OK WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWRD FROM THE LOW THRU N ARK AND NW TN.
THIS SFC LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

.TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NW ARK OVERNITE. AN UPPER SHRTWV
WILL PINWHEEL THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNITE. A SFC BNDRY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS S ARK AND C MS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING AND BE THRU THE REGION AROUND 9Z.
MODERATE SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTCENTRAL
ARK...NW MS AND SW TN AS THIS BNDRY MOVES NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO A
GOOD AMOUNT OF 0-3KM HELICITY PRESENT. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE VALUES PRESENT AND MODEST INSTABILITY...IF SUPERCELLS WERE TO
DEVELOP THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THEY WILL BEGIN ROTATING. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...LOW MOVES TO SE ARK. MIDSOUTH IS INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AND THE SVR THREAT WILL BE WIND/HAIL. WIND FIELDS BECOME
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND ARE FAIRLY STRONG...SO WIND DAMAGE FROM TSTRMS IS
POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY BECOMES WEAKER TOMORROW AS INDICATED BY LIS OF
AROUND -2 AND WK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

.SAT NITE...LOW MOVES INTO NE LA. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
STABLE AND PRECIP TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF STRATIFORM RA W/ ONLY ISO
THUNDER. BY SUNDAY THE LOW MOVES TO SW MS AND THE REGION SHOULD SEE
A PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE LOW.

.SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY...LOW MOVES OFF THE LA COAST AND INTO THE
GULF. AN INVERTED TROF STILL EXISTS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER THERE
SEEMS TO BE LITTLE LIFT PRESENT AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT.
SO...STILL WILLING TO KEEP DRY FCST GOING.

.TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...
ON TUESDAY...THE NEXT SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED FRNT ARRIVES BRINGING
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTRMS TO THE REGION. THE FRNT SEEMS TO SETTLE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR RAIN AROUND
FOR WED AND THU.

.MEG...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 03Z FOR MO BOOTHEEL...NE ARK...NW MS AND
PARTS OF W TN.

VALLE

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT SOUTH AND WEST
OF LINE FROM WALNUT RIDGE TO COVINGTON TO RIPLEY TO HOUSTON.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DURING
THE EVENING HOURS UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND ANOTHER
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE MID SOUTH. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SATURDAY WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

VALLE

ARZ027-035-162315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
554 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CROSS AND POINSETT
COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF HICKORY RIDGE AT
554 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CROSS AND POINSETT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

ARZ036-170000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CRITTENDEN COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF EARLE AT 643
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF EARLE...MARION
AND TURRELL...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

TNZ048-049-088-170030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
719 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...LAUDERDALE...SHELBY AND
TIPTON COUNTIES.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FULTON TO 41 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FULTON AT 719 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LAUDERDALE...SHELBY AND TIPTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.