Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
158 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2003

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLD CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FM GUADALUPES SOUTHEAST INTO
DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SPIN NR NM BOOTHEEL
HELPING DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NWD FM MEXICO ACROSS WELL HEATED
HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AND EXPAND
SOME AS COOL STORM OUTFLOWS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. STRONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FM CO-KS MCS EARLY THIS MORNING SURGED S
ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN AND LOOKS TO BE LYING FM JAL TO CRANE TO BIG
LAKE WHERE LATEST VIS SHOWING SOME CU DEVELOPING. UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FNT WILL ALLOW
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE FM SE NM ACROSS PERMIAN
BASIN. HOWEVER WARM H7 TEMPS STILL IN PLACE SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN RATHER ISOLD UNLESS STORMS CAN MERGE INTO SMALL COMPLEX. SVR
THREAT EXISTS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER MCS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE CO...SW
KS AND TX PNHDL SO REINFORCED OUTFLOW WILL KEEP BOUNDARY FURTHER S
THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SUN. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ISOLD CONVECTION IN
MTNS WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FNT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL/NRN PERMIAN BASIN. WITH LITTLE THICKNESS/H8 COOLING
PROGD ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD MOST PLACES FOR SUN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHRTWV ENERGY ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FURTHER FLATTEN RIDGE ON
MON. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER CDFNT S INTO THE AREA KEEPING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. HEIGHTS DROP FURTHER THROUGH MID WEEK AS
UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH RIDGE ALONG W COAST AND DEEPENING CENTRAL
US TROUGH. PERSISTENT NW FLOW PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND WITH
AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY PROGGED ON WED...AMPLE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AND
EARLY JUNE HEATING CHCS LOOK GOOD FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FCST. EXPECT MAINLY EVENING AND NIGHTTIME COMPLEXES ROLLING OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN BY END OF WEEK.

MAF 68 97 69 94 / 30 30 20 20
CNM 67 99 67 96 / 20 20 20 20
MRF 61 92 59 90 / 20 20 20 20
FST 70 99 71 96 / 20 20 20 20

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

24

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-011000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT OFF
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE TRANS PECOS REGION.  ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINE TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST AND INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING GENERALLY
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.