Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 310641
FFSMAF
TXC043-310745-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 245 AM
CDT...

AT 140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
DETECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN BREWSTER COUNTY...MOVING 
SOUTH AT 15 MPH. 

DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS DIFFICULT TO RECOGNIZE
FLOOD DANGERS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.

LAT...LON 3058 10345 3036 10373 2945 10371 2933 10308
          3005 10264

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NEAR TATUM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE GIVEN THE VERITABLE PLETHORA
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  AS SUCH THERES NOT A GOOD FEELING AS TO
WHERE CONVECTION WILL FOCUS...BUT THE BEST GUESS WE HAVE IS ACROSS
THE EASTERN BASIN NORTH INTO THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  THESE
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM MIDLAND NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO CITY.  AS SUCH...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ALL COUNTIES SAVE PECOS COUNTY.  THE HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
JUSTIFIED...WITH POPS RAMPING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING...AND WITH THIS MOIST AND COOL AIRMASS...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE NONEXISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY 12Z THE PRIMARY PUSH OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE AREA OF BEST LIFT/FORCING ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT CAA AND CLOUD
COVER TO RESULT IN COOL AFTERNOON MAXIMA...UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN.

MID/UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BY
MONDAY AS A RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE
BIG BEND MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS AS THE RIDGE/WEST
TROUGH/EAST PATTERN SLOWLY AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK AND GENERALLY
PROMOTES CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MAF 63 79 61 84 / 70 20 00 00
CNM 62 83 59 86 / 40 10 00 00
MRF 59 75 56 78 / 40 40 20 20
FST 63 79 61 83 / 60 40 10 10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT EASTERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN
     AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
NM...NONE.

&&

70/LINDLEY

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-311000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF A LAMESA...ODESSA...TO CRANE LINE.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.