Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
115 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

FOR THE NEAR TERM...MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE MCS MAKE IT.  BACKBUILDING FROM
LAST NIGHTS MCS WAS ABLE TO CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  LOOKS LIKE
A SIMILAR SITUATION MAY SET UP AGAIN TODAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
BEST CONVECTION STARTS UP.  850MB WINDS EARLY WERE FROM THE SSW...AND
SHOULD BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK LEAD
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST STARTS TO
INFLUENCE THIS AREA.  AS THE 850MB WINDS BACK...THEY ALSO PICK UP...
AND A LLJ SETS UP ON TOP OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THETA-E RIDGE AT 850MB
ALSO POSITIONED OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE ACCORDING TO THE MESOETA
AND ETA.  THIS MAY ASSIST MCS IN BACKBUILDING FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO
OUR CWA.  WILL HAVE A GOOD SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN MCS IF THE INITIAL
CONVECTION IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. IF
CONVECTION STARTS TOO FAR NORTH...EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST
NIGHT WITH JUST THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA GETTING CLIPPED
AGAIN.  THIS IS BASED ON STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY CORFIDI VECTORS.
BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
NORTHEAST WITH SLIGHT EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT THE MOUNTAINS.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER OUR CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS SETTING UP A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDER SPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...TRANS PECOS...AND
SOUTHEASTERN NM AREAS.  HAVE UPPED THE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER LLJ SETS UP WITH AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE
PLANTED OVER THE TOP OF THE SAME AREA ORIENTED NW TO SE.  MID/UPPER
RIDGE IS ALSO BROKEN DOWN AT THIS TIME AS THE LOW NOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.  LIFT AND
DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER ARGUING FOR HIGHER
POPS.  FLOW WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK ALOFT...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY AND ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING...HEAVY RAIN
THREAT IS STILL THERE.  THERE IS ALSO A SEVERE THREAT OF MAINLY HAIL
AND WINDS...BUT HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER THAT.  RETAINED
CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY WITH BOUNDARY POSSIBLY STILL IN THE AREA TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS.  WILL ALSO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
MAF 66 84 57 77 / 30 50 60 40
CNM 66 85 57 79 / 30 50 50 30
MRF 58 85 54 76 / 30 30 50 40
FST 67 89 63 81 / 30 50 50 40

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

SN

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-251000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.  A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...
GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A SEMINOLE TO GARDEN CITY LINE...WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND MONDAY.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW...HOWEVER LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW
THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT AND THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov.