Tornado Warning 17, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2003

DAY ONE...
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED BY MORNING
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUPPORTED BY LATEST UA DATA AND WV IMAGERY. IN
FACT...WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS NOTED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN NM THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...RUC APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS HANDLED
THE EVOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL WX FEATURES REASONABLY WELL. AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS ORIENTED ACROSS
EASTERN NM WITH PERHAPS A MESO-LOW SITUATED BETWEEN TCC AND CVS. A
SWD MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ERN NM MESO-LOW ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN TX PANHANDLE...FROM NEAR HEREFORD TO SOUTH OF CDS.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT NEARLY BI-SECTS THE LBB CWFA FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS HAS CREATED MODERATE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST TEXAS...PULLING DEEP BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE WWD.
INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM NE TO SW ACCORDINGLY WITH CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE NE ZONES TO GREATER THAN 3500
J/KG ACROSS THE SW ZONES. COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE HAS CREATED A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE LATEST
SWODY1...SWOMCD AND HWOLBB FOR DETAILS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
COALESCE INTO MCS BY LATE EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WEST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS...BRINGING MOST AREAS AT LEAST
MODERATE RAINFALL. QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH RESPECT FOR WEDNESDAY/S
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ANY OUTFLOW-INDUCED CLOUD
COVER LIKELY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO NEAR 140W-145W
BY TUESDAY WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
A WEAK/FLAT RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND SLIDE DOWN
ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO MONTANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE RELIGION THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN BY THURSDAY MORNING
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL PUSH A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NEAR
ZONAL BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WITH THUS KEEP MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY.

FCSTID = 08

FRIONA      59 78 58 79 / 60 20 40 20
TULIA       60 77 59 77 / 60 20 30 20
LUBBOCK     66 81 62 81 / 60 20 30 20
BROWNFIELD  66 85 64 83 / 60 20 40 20
CHILDRESS   63 75 64 80 / 60 20 30 20
ASPERMONT   68 80 67 83 / 60 20 30 20

.LBB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-040000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN LATE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY...THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY
IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE AND THE
WARM FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. GIANT HAIL AND VERY STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY
FROM THESE STORMS. STORMS THAT MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

EJC

TXZ021>024-027>044-040200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

...TORNADO WATCH 471 IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 471 UNTIL
900 PM CDT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...BAILEY...LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...
MOTLEY...COTTLE...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...
KING...YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...GARZA...KENT AND STONEWALL

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

TXZ021>024-027>044-040200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

...TORNADO WATCH 471 IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 471 UNTIL
900 PM CDT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...BAILEY...
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...COTTLE...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...
LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...KING...YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...GARZA...
KENT AND STONEWALL

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.