Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS St. Louis, MO

May 6, 2003Iron County, Madison County, Reynolds County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 6, 2003, 8:46 PM CDT for Iron County, Madison County, Reynolds County, Missouri. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 6, 2003, 8:46 PM CDT (01:46 UTC)
Expired: May 6, 2003, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Reynolds County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 6, 5:40 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr
May 6, 6:35 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2206 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1529 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 141 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 234 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.5
Supercell composite: 14.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

014 
WUUS53 KLSX 070146
SVRLSX
MOC093-123-179-070245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
847 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  IRON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
  MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
  REYNOLDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 847 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER REYNOLDS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GLOVER
  ARCADIA
  IRONTON
  PILOT KNOB
  ROSELLE

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

LAT...LON 3774 9115 3759 9133 3725 9116 3706 9097
          3706 9079 3729 9075 3732 9016 3765 9015
          3766 9066 3774 9066

$$

TES/RP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 6, 1:00 PM CDT, 7 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 6, 1:00 PM CDT, 7 hours 46 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

MOISTURE AT 850 WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS MORNING.  ETA SIMILAR WITH MONS RUN WITH 100 KT H3 JET
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT WITH 2ND JET VICINITY OF LM
PROVIDING JET COUPLING. SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE FORECAST ACROSS IL
AND AR.  MSAS AT NOON INDICATED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
CENTRAL MO AT NOON WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE ERN OZARKS.

HIGH MOISTURE FORECAST BY NGM, ETA AND GFS WITH ALL 3 FORECASTING
KS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS PTNS OF THE AREA THIS EVE.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PARAMETER. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
HAS 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED THESE VALUES AND WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
ENTIRE CWA FOR TONIGHT.

SERIOUS OF SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.  ETA
FORECASTS H5 80 M HEIGHT FALL CENTER OVER NM THU MORNING WITH 120 M
HFC DIGGING INTO NRN CA.  THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR.  LEAD SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO NW MO/SW IA BY THU MIDN BY BOTH ETA AND GFS.
STRONG SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SAT
MORNING AND PLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUN MORNING.  GFS IS
FORECASTING A 180 M HFC NR MKE BY 12Z SUN.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST STRONG H5
SHORT WAVES ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE GFS CLOSING
OFF THE LOW OVR THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO.  AS A RESULT, GFS IS SLOWER
WITH SYSTEM THAN ECMWF BY SUN.  THE ECMWF IS VERY SIMILAR IN
FORECASTING A DEEP SURFACE LOW NR LS BY SUN MORNING.  THINGS QUIET
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS SHIFTING THE STRONG SHORT WAVES FURTHER
N.

.STL...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TONIGHT

Hazardous weather outlook, May 6, 12:15 PM CDT, 8 hours 31 minutes before

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A PARIS TO BOWLING GREEN MISSOURI TO
LITCHFIELD ILLINOIS LINE.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ARE COLUMBIA...JEFFERSON CITY...ST LOUIS...FARMINGTON...
BELLEVILLE AND CENTRALIA.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA OVER WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

LOW PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG ATMOSPHERIC WINDS AND VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  THERE IS A RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS WIL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

BRITT

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 6, 8:12 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
812 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0805 PM    BARNHART                  MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   JEFFERSON                      REPORTED BY HAM RADIO.

0805 PM    WEINGARTEN                MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   STE GENEVIEVE                  REPORTED BY HAM RADIO.

Local storm report, May 6, 8:20 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
820 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0805 PM    BONNE TERRE               MO   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   ST FRANCOIS                    NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER
                                          LINES...SOME ON TOP OF
                                          CARS WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED.
                                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO.
                                          TIME ESTIMATED.

0817 PM    RUMA                      IL   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   RANDOLPH                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

Local storm report, May 6, 8:21 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
821 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0750 PM    DE SOTO                   MO   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   JEFFERSON                      EXTENSIVE TREE AND POWER
                                          LINE DAMAGE.  CITY IS
                                          WITHOUT POWER.  REPORTED
                                          BY HAM RADIO.

Local storm report, May 6, 8:31 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
831 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0831 PM    2SW MARISSA               IL   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/06/03   ST. CLAIR                      MOVING
                                          NORTHEAST...REPORTED BY
                                          HAM RADIO.

Local storm report, May 6, 8:33 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0825 PM    HECKER                    IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   MONROE                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO.

0830 PM    WALSH                     IL   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/06/03   RANDOLPH                       REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC.

Local storm report, May 6, 8:43 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
843 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0835 PM    2S NEW ATHENS             IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   ST. CLAIR                      REPORTED BY HAM RADIO.

0835 PM    CHESTER                   IL   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/06/03   RANDOLPH                       REPORTED BY STATE
                                          POLICE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 6, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford	44 min
May 6, 7:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson	59 min
May 6, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	50 min
May 6, 7:37 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Franklin	3 hr
May 6, 7:38 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	52 min
May 6, 7:55 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Jefferson	4 hr
May 6, 8:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	45 min
May 6, 8:07 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Iron, Madison, Saint Francois	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.