Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

AT 20Z...WK CDFNT FM NR PIA-AIZ-SERN KS.  STG VORT MX TWIRLING ARND
UPR MIDWEST...NR FSD...AND IS MOVG SEWD.

IN THE NR-TERM...WEAK CAP ACRS SRN FA AND APPCHG CDFNT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLD TSTM ERL THIS EVNG.  LTL IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT OTR THAN
THAT...SO DO NOT XPCT ANYTHING THAT DOES DVLP THERE TO LAST LONG AFT
SS.  TO OUR N...STG TSTMS OVR IA AHD OF VORT MX ARE XPCT TO SUBSIDE
ARND/AFT SS AS THEY ARE STGLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT.  STILL...AS VORT
MX MOVS THRU DURG OVRNGT HRS...WL LEAVE A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.  AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHC OF SVR TSTMS AFT SS.

FOR THU...WL LEAVE CHC OF PCPN FOR AREAS S AND E OF STL DURG ERL
MRNG...OTRW...PTSUNNY/MOCLDY DAY ON TAP AS MUCH OF SFC MOISTURE RMNS
BHND CDFNT AS HI PRES THAT BLDS IN BHND IT MUCH TOO WK TO INFLUENCE
DWPTS MUCH.  LOOK FOR FAIR AMNT OF DIURNAL CU TO DVLP ACRS FA.
SIDED WITH COOLER MAV NUMBERS DUE TO XPCTD CLD CVR AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AMS BLDG IN BHND FNT.

FOR THU NGT/FRI...ATTN THEN TURNS TO APPCHG UPR LO...COMG FM THE
SWRN CONUS.  LOOK FOR INCRSG MID-HI CLDNSS THAT MAY MESS UP VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE.  RAIN CHCS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF
TIL AFT SR FRI MRNG...AND WITH ABUNDANT CLDS AND RAIN DURG FRI...
HVLY SIDED WITH COOLER MAV FOR MAX TEMPS.

IN THE EXTDD...WX QUIETS DOWN ONCE UPR LO EXITS ON SAT NGT/ERL
SUN...WITH NXT CHC OF PCPN NOT UNTIL TUE/TUE NGT AS ANOTR CDFNT MOVS
THRU.  FAVOR ECMWF SPD ON CDFNT WHICH BRINGS IT THRU FASTER THAN
GFS...MORE DURG TUE MRNG THAN AFTN.  COOL PAC HI PRES WL THEN
DOMINATE WX FOR WED AND INTO LATE NXT WK.

.STL...NONE.
TES

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
210 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

WDB/TES