Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS St. Louis, MO

May 10, 2003Audrain County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 10, 2003, 8:32 PM CDT for Audrain County, Missouri. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2003, 8:32 PM CDT (01:32 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2003, 9:15 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Audrain County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 10, 5:40 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 291 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1566 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -80 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 910 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 234 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 259 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.8
Supercell composite: 12.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

421 
WUUS53 KLSX 110132
SVRLSX
MOC007-110215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
832 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 832 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MEXICO...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LADDONIA
  FARBER
  VANDALIA
  MEXICO

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

LAT...LON 3924 9213 3908 9201 3908 9167 3917 9144
          3933 9145 3934 9208

$$
RP/MB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 10, 5:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 5:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
500 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

DLYD DISC DUE TO WX.  LAST HURRAH FOR SVR WX FOR A FEW DAYS WL BE
THIS EVNG AS STG S/W ALFT AND ITS ASSOC SPEED MAX AND A DRYLN AT THE
SFC INTERACTS WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AMS ACRS MO AND IL.

DRYLN AND CDFNT...WHICH IS TRAILING JUST BHND IT...WL MERGE ERL THIS
EVNG OVR WRN MO AND THEN THIS FEATURE WL TRACK RPDLY EWD THRU
FA...CLRG STL AREA BFR 06Z AND CLEARING RMNDR OF FA IN IL SHORTLY
AFT 06Z.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL THEN PUSH IN BHND WOUND-UP SFC LO TRACKING
TO THE N.  LEANED TWDS WRMR FWC TEMPS...ESP NRN HALF...DUE TO CLDNSS
BLDG IN AND WELL MIXED LWR AMS.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS WL THEN PREVAIL FOR NXT COUPLE DAYS.  SC CLD
SHIELD WL DOMINATE NRN HALF OF FA ON SUN.  SFC WNDS WL BE RATHER STG
AND MENTIONED HIR GUSTS PSBL.  WELL MECH MIXED LWR AMS WL PROVIDE DP
MIXING LYR DESPITE NWLY SFC WNDS/ASSOC CAA/CLDNSS...AND GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOKED OK.

WNDS WL GRAD SUBSIDE OVR NXT 24HRS HDG INTO SUN NGT/MON...WITH RDG
FINALY BLDG IN ON MON NGT.  NO PROBLEM WITH GUIDANCE MINS.
HOWEVER...WENT WITH MAV/MET BLEND ON MON MAX TEMPS AS FWC LOOKED TO
WRM.

ON EXTDD PD...KEPT PCPN CHCS THE SAME...AS FULLY AGREED WITH NCEP
THINKING THAT 00Z GFS/MRF WAS TOO STG AND AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN
CLOSED UPR LO INTO MID MS VLY ON WED.  INSTEAD FLWD MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF AND THE TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z GFS/MRF...WHICH HAS PCPN
CHCS ON WED/THU.  ANOTR SRN STRM S/W MAY IMPACT FA ON SAT...BUT HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS...AND FOR NOW LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY TO
OUR S.  HAVE LEFT SAT FCST DRY ATTM.

.STL...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TNGT.
       TORNADO WATCH #338 TIL 00Z NE AND CNTRL MO
       TORNADO WATCH #342 TIL 02Z SE MO AND FAR SRN IL
TES

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 12:30 PM CDT, 8 hours 2 minutes before

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION INCLUDING QUINCY...HANNIBAL...JEFFERSON CITY...
COLUMBIA...THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA...CARLINVILLE...CENTRALIA...
SALEM...CHESTER AND FARMINGTON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL THAT THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL AS EASTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT A
FEW OF THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND DAMAGING
TORNADOES...HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  IN ADDITION...THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

REMAIN ALERT AND STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS
COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTER A REST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN GREATLY APPRECIATED DURING THE PAST
WEEK.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

BRITT

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 10, 7:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0640 PM    5E LAKENAN                MO   WIND DAMAGE
05/10/03   SHELBY                         TREES ONE FOOT ACROSS
                                          SNAPPED...POWERLINE POLES
                                          SNAPPED...WOOD STRUCTURE
                                          WITH METAL SIDING TOTALLY
                                          DESTROYED. REPORTED BY
                                          AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR.

Local storm report, May 10, 7:38 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
738 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 PM    3N LIBERTY                IL   TORNADO
05/10/03   ADAMS                          DEBRIS REPORTED. REPORTED
                                          BY SEVERE WEATHER
                                          SPOTTERS.

Local storm report, May 10, 7:48 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
748 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0740 PM    3NW KELLERVILLE           IL   TORNADO
05/10/03   ADAMS                          REPORTED BY SEVERE
                                          WEATHER SPOTTERS.

Local storm report, May 10, 7:52 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
752 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0740 PM    CANTON                    MO   WIND DAMAGE
05/10/03   LEWIS                          COUNTY MARKET GROCERY
                                          STORE COMPLETELY
                                          DESTROYED AND CULVER
                                          STOCKTON COLLEGE
                                          SUSTAINED DAMAGE TO
                                          BUILDINGS. PUBLIC REPORT.

0740 PM    2S CLAYTON                IL   TORNADO
05/10/03   ADAMS                          REPORTED BY ADAMS COUNTY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                          AGENCY.

0745 PM    1SW MOUND STATION         IL   TORNADO
05/10/03   BROWN                          REPORTED BY BROWN COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

Local storm report, May 10, 7:53 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
753 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0750 PM    4W MT STERLING            IL   TORNADO
05/10/03   BROWN                          REPORTED BY ILLINOIS
                                          STATE POLICE.

Local storm report, May 10, 8:06 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
806 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0700 PM    5W ST. ROSE               IL   WIND DAMAGE
05/10/03   CLINTON                        TWO 6 INCH LIMBS DOWNED
                                          FROM TREE. REPORTED BY
                                          SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS.

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 7:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jefferson	38 min
May 10, 7:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Knox, Shelby	52 min
May 10, 7:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Knox	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.