Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 091821
FFSLMK
KYC045-137-091945-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
221 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR LINCOLN AND 
NORTHERN CASEY COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

STEADY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THESE AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATES 
THAT BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THIS AREA WITHIN 
THE LAST TWO HOURS. 

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADWAYS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$
CALLAHAN

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 091859
FFSLMK
KYC045-137-091915-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
256 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR 
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN CASEY COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA HAVE DISSPATED. WHILE SMALLER 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THESE COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR 
...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO RENEW FLOODING.

$$
CALLAHAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA AND EASTERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT STILL
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN PORTION OF FA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THEN
TAPERING OFF AS GO FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH SYSTEM WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO LESS FAVORABLE AIR (LOWER L.I./S).

MODELS SHOW SAME GENERAL PATTERN BUT GFS IS FASTER THAN ETA WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. NCEP LIKES FASTER GFS AND WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD GFS BUT SLOW IT DOWN SLIGHTLY - NOT AS MUCH AS ETA.

MAIN PROBLEMS THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ARE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND HOW MUCH TO CUT TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS.

.SHORT TERM...

WITH AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEARING DOWN ON FA WILL HAVE TO
GO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN LOWER POPS LATE MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS
IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING. ON TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ONLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA. HOWEVER MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO
COOL AS SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS/MOVES SOUTH. WITH LESS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION...EXPECT AFTERNOON STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH THAN
YESTERDAY. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OVER ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS FA AND WILL
LEAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ON
THURSDAY AS FRONT GETS CLOSER...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME LIKELY
ACROSS ENTIRE AREA. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO FA THURSDAY
EVENING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
RH DROPS OFF RAPIDLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLOWLY.

.LMK...NONE.

SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-100930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY
RESULT FROM THE HEAVY RAINS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHOULD THEY OBSERVE ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING.

JB