Flash Flood Warning 123, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 AM AST SUN NOV 16 2003

WINDS GUSTING OUT OF NNE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES DOWN OVER
PR AND USVI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOC WITH THIS
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVI.
LOOKS LIKE THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AND BUCKLE AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NE AND THEN SE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TROUGH FROM EAST MOVES WESTWARD INTO LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW ALL THE MOISTURE TO KEEP FEEDING INTO OUR LOCAL AREA AND
REMAIN OVER AREA THROUGH MONDAY TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AGAIN ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA. INCREASED POPS ACROSS EAST AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY SITTING OVER US PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOLLOWING PREVIOUS THINKING...WILL KEEP COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM RINCON TO FAJARDO AND NORTH
COASTS OF NORTHERN USVI. SCA OUT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL
PASSAGES. THE WNA MODEL DOES SHOW INCREASE OF SEAS TO PEAK THIS
MORNING AROUND 9AM AT 3M OR AROUND 10 FT...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUN
WAS FROM NOV 14 AT 18Z.

.SJU...
.PR...FFA PRZALL TIL 6PM. HSA AND CFW PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.
SCA AMZ710-740 FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES.
.VI...FFA VIZALL TIL 6PM. HSA AND CFW VIZ001. SCA AMZ720-730.

EQUIPMENT...RADAR WENT DOWN IN CH 1 DUE TO TRANSMITTER PROBLEM.
SWITCHED TO CH 2. OTHERWISE...NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-152200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SATURDAY NOV 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED...ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING. THE TERRAIN REMAINS
VERY SATURATED AND ALL RIVERS...AND STREAMS ARE ALSO STILL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.THEREFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND SLIDES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
TODAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY.

.SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS GETS LIFTED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
HOWEVER BE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO PRODUCE MAINLY EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING IN ISOLATED
AREAS IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED...ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING. THE TERRAIN REMAINS
VERY SATURATED AND ALL GUTS...AND STREAMS STILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND SLIDES ACROSS STEEP TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS OF OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY.
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
TODAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY.

.SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS GETS LIFTED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
HOWEVER BE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO PRODUCE MAINLY EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. URBAN AND GUT FLOODING IN ISOLATED
AREAS IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.