Tornado Warning 199, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CST THU NOV 27 2003

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE DAY ON TAP WEATHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THAT IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHED NEAR A MONROE LOUISIANA TO HATTIESBURG
MISSISSIPPI LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WHILE THE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST TODAY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL. MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SLOWER GFS. THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AIR ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
MORNING LOWS BELOW FREEZING AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON   68/45/52/28/52  ++ ++ 00 00 00
MERIDIAN  67/46/51/26/52  ++ ++ 00 00 00

.JAN WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
MS...TORNADO WATCH 976 FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 8AM CST.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271957-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
157 PM CST WED NOV 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THANKSGIVING DAY.  SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS IT APPROACHES...A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...ALOFT...A FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST TO BE OVER THE REGION AS
WELL. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
GOOD... BUT A FEW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD BRIEFLY SPAWN A FEW
TORNADOES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
ALABAMA.

...FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...PONDING ON
AREA ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE FLOW OF THE WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION...COUPLED WITH AN ANTICIPATED SLOW EASTWARD TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.