Tornado Warning 131, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE CURRENT CONVECTION
AND ITS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

18Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 ARE SUBSTANTIALLY CAPPED. ONLY FEATURE TO RELEASE THIS
CAP WILL BE THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX COMING OUT OF NE TX.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ONLY EFFECT THE N PORTIONS OF THE FA.
WITH SUCH FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOREHOUSE PARISH TO GREENVILLE AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

CONCERNING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS
FOR TONIGHT...AS HEAVY RAINS FROM MORNING STORMS HAVE LAID THE
FOUNDATION FOR FLASH FLOODING WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW SUPPORTS TRAINING OF STORMS AND I AM
EXPECTING AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

FOR TUE...ANOTHER S/W WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SW FLOW AND EFFECT AREAS
TO MY NORTH. WITH THE PRESENCE OF SFC BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS
EVENINGS CONVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF THE S/W WILL CONTINUE SCT
POPS ALONG THE N ZONES...ISOLATED CENTRAL. WILL KEEP THIS RAIN
CHANCE ORIENTATION THROUGH WED AS LINGERING BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST
OVER THE NORTHERN FA.

WILL MENTION DRY CONDITIONS...AREA WIDE...FOR THU AS FOCUSING
FEATURES LIFT NORTH. FOR FRI...GFS INDICATES A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...WILL MENTION SCT
POPS.

FOR SAT-MON...UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS. WITH

WITH SUCH A WARM AIRMASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION...AND
NOTHING TO PUSH IT OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE 7 DAY
FORECAST...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FA. BY
THE WEEKEND...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 90S.

JAN 74/88/73/89/73 32220
MEI 73/88/72/89/72 22220

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT...MSZ025>033-036>039.

36

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
435 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEKALB TO CANTON TO RAYVILLE LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THAT LINE. THE AREA MOST IMPACTED SHOULD BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR WHERE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PASSED TODAY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND A
FEW TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS INDICATING A HIGH
RISK CATEGORY FOR A FEW DAMAGING TORNADOES AS WELL.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS FEEDING MORE GULF AIR INTO
THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...RESULTING IN
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL YIELD FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN THIS AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXPECTED ALL WEEK LONG.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS SITUATION.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY EAST OF A MACON TO LEXINGTON TO
PARCHMAN LINE.	AS A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND POOR DRAINING AREAS.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF DEKALB TO CANTON TO
RAYVILLE LINE. AT THIS TIME...THE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS IN THIS
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ISOLATED...AND SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY
BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CROSSETT
ARKANSAS...TO LEXINGTON...TO MACON LINE. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...AND COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN ONLY ISOLATED ONES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82
ON FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA...REDUCING
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
432 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0421 PM    GREENWOOD                 MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   LEFLORE                        REPORTED BY LEFLORE
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
453 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0452 PM    DUNCAN                    MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   BOLIVAR                        REPORTED BY BOLIVAR
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
504 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0440 PM    1 N MATHISTON             MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   WEBSTER                        REPORTED BY WEBSTER
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0505 PM    GRENADA                   MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   GRENADA                        REPORTED BY GRENADA
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0511 PM    GRENADA                   MS   FLOODING
05/05/03   GRENADA                        HEAVY STREET FLOODING
                                          REPORTED BY GRENADA
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 PM CST MON MAY 5 2003...CORRECTED HEADER...

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0850 PM    DREW                      MS   TREES DOWN
05/05/03   SUNFLOWER                      REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGER.