Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003

DO NOT SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WET PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM KMLU TO KGLH...WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...PROBABLY ALONG SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT HAS NOT MOVED VERY MUCH IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL MS
TONIGHT AND LIFTING NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SW MS CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OUT OF THE AREA. THE ETA SOUNDING FOR
TONIGHT WAS VERY CLOSE TO ACTUAL...EXPECT SOME DRYING LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...WILL BACK OFF ON THE POPS.
MAY ADD SEVERE WORDING TODAY...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. DPTS
WERE NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS WITH MSAS LI VALUES AROUND -5.

THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...WITH ETA SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD VALUES. WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THIS FRONT ALSO
STALLS OVER THE AREA...WITH THE AVN DEVELOPING A SURFACE OVER S TX
AND MOVING UP THE BOUNDARY BY MID WEEK. CHANCE POPS STILL GOOD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PLOT SIGNIFICANT QPF JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND A STALLED
FRONT...HEAVY RAIN IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO RAIN CHANCES OK.

WILL GO WITH AVN/MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR TEMPS AND
WINDS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN 085/064 087/068 083 42255
MEI 087/061 086/068 084 42255

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...OTHERWISE...

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS REGION WILL
SETTLE INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CONCENTRATED
STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 3
PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 9 PM SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONLY ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
FOR SUNDAY...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ENHANCING THE LIFT AND ALLOWING FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST AND COULD TRIGGER AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND
STEEP MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL HELP SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT WOULD APPEAR THE HIGHEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY
HOWEVER...YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS COULD DEVELOP
WITH A STALLED FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE REGION.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL
JET SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO AGAIN
PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AGAIN POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORM SYSTEMS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATER FORECAST AND STATEMENTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT BUT MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
116 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 AM    TOOMSUBA                  MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/03/03   LAUDERDALE                     REPORTED BY LAUDERDALE
                                          COUNTY EMA.