Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

THE INGREDIANTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE EVENING OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MISSISSIPPI AND TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE
70S WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS A FAIRLY DEEP
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS WHILE A
120KT JET MAX MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS OUR AREA. AREA RADARS
HAVE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILIAR IN RAPIDLY MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTH OF OUR
AREA BY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND END
THE RAIN. CLOUD FCST IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS THE SFC LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME VCTY UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN BOTH FINALLY WEAKEN AND KICK OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. ETA BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST THEN BUT WL OPT
FOR THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION AND LEAVE POPS OUT FOR NOW.

IN THE EXTENDED...A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE NRN GULF. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. GFS HINTS AT A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. STILL...WL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PROVIDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 056/079/053/77/51 7000-
MEI 057/077/053/76/50 600--

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
138 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX SPRING LIKE STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING
THE  REGION. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. VERY
STRONG WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT ROTATING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SUPERCELL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
DAMAGING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
80 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND MOVE NORTH NORTH EAST. AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SPREAD
EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM MONTICELLO TO MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI WILL HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SEEING THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN AREAS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM NATCHEZ TO VICKSBURG TO PICKENS TO GORE SPRINGS. ALL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIT OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY CHANGING AND WILL QUICKLY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTAINING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. REVIEW SAFETY PLANS
AND BE PREPARED TO ACT WHEN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
711 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0635 PM    4 NE WINNSBORO            LA   60 MPH WIND GUST
03/18/03   FRANKLIN LA                    LARGE LIMBS DOWN...
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
723 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0644 PM    5 N CROWVILLE             LA   FUNNEL CLOUD
03/18/03   FRANKLIN LA                    REPORTED BY MADISON
                                          PARISH SHERIFFS OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
727 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0700 PM    ST JOSEPH                 LA   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/18/03   TENSAS                         QUARTER HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          TENSAS EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
736 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0649 PM    WATERPROOF                LA   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/18/03   TENSAS                         QUARTER SIZE HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC AND
                                          RELAYED FROM NWS
                                          SHREVEPORT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
748 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0714 PM    5 SE NEWELLTON            LA   TORNADO
03/18/03   TENSAS                         POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED
                                          BY TENSAS PARISH EMA NEAR
                                          MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

0720 PM    2 SW GRAND GULF           MS   TORNADO
03/18/03   CLAIBORNE                      POSSIBLE TORNADO SITED
                                          CROSSING MISSISSIPPI
                                          RIVER FROM TENSAS PARISH
                                          INTO CLAIBORNE COUNTY
                                          HEADING TOWARD GRAND
                                          GULF...REPORTED BY TENSAS
                                          PARISH EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
752 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0719 PM    GRAND GULF                MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
03/18/03   CLAIBORNE                      REPORTED BY GRAND GULF
                                          STATE PARK EMPLOYEE.