Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND T.S. BILL AND ITS MOVEMENT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.

AT 08Z...TS BILL WAS LOCATED 170 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LA. A
NORTHWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE AS FORECAST TODAY WITH LANDFALL
ALONG THE CENTRAL LA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BILL IS LOOKING
MORE IMPRESSIVE AS THE HOURS PASS...AS A LARGE CDO IS NOW DEVELOPING
AS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASES. THE LARGEST AREA OF CONVECTION IS
LOCATED TO THE N/NE OF THE CENTER...BUT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO
INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BILL TO INTENSIFY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MY FA WILL BE THE HEAVY
RAIN. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE AND BETTER SHEAR
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. WILL MENTION TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO. BACK TO THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE SE AND EAST FA HAS SEEN
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL SO FAR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHIFT TO
THE WEST AS BILL APPROACHES THE COAST. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS ALONG THE MS COAST AND OVER SE LA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTH AND NW THROUGH TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN FA...WITH THOSE AREAS RECEIVING A GENERAL 3
TO 5 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE 5+ INCHES.
WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

BY TUE...THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NE THROUGH THE
FA AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. AS THE CENTER MOVES
NE...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
SOME PEAKS OF SUN TO APPEAR LATE IN THE DAY. B/C OF THIS HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A BIT FOR WEST OF THE MS RIVER. FOR TUE NIGHT
HAVE LOWER POPS TO SCT AS REMNANTS OF BILL EXIT THE FA.

BY WED...HAVE LEFT A GENERAL 50 POP ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER SHEAR
AXIS WILL PERSIST JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS
IN...THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS WILL MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCT
TSRA.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

JAN TT 084/075 087/074 088 36++7
    TBBBB 074/091 074/093 074/093 074/093 075 45542323233
MEI TT 083/075 085/074 087 36++8
    TBBBB 074/091 073/092 073/092 074/093 075 56542323233

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...FFA ALL NE LA ZONES.
MS...FFA MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074.

36

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011207-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
707 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LOUISIANA...TO CRYSTAL
SPRINGS AND QUITMAN MISSISSIPPI.  THIS AREA INCLUDES THE NATCHEZ
AND HATTIESBURG AREAS.

NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...NORTH AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

TROPICAL STORM BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST BY LATE MONDAY...SPREADING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.	AS THE
STORM MOVES ONSHORE...SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...OR CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION OR SPEED WITH HEIGHT...WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SEE BRIEF
TORNADOES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF BILLS FORECAST TRACK.  OVER
THE REST OF THE REGION...THE MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES AN HOUR.

...FLOODING...
RAINBANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BILL...WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST
LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI TODAY.  AS BILL APPROACHES
THE LOUISIANA COAST...RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.  WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL ON AN ALREADY SOAKED
GROUND...FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS...AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  FURTHER
NORTH...RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.	THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
BILLS REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA THROUGH MID WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION EVEN AFTER BILL MAKES LANDFALL.  GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLY
BRINGING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS.  RAIN AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL PRODUCE
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN ADDITION...THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND EAST OF
WHERE BILLS REMNANTS MOVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.