Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
205 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

NUMEROUS FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...STEMMING AROUND SVR
WEATHER THREATS AND HEAVY PCPN POSSIBILITIES. LOOKS LIKE ONE ROUND
LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINER...WITH A MUCH MORE
SERIOUS LOOKING SEVERE SITUATION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LATEST SFC CHART SHOWING THE WARM FRONT HAS NOW PROGRESSED NWRD TO
AROUND CHI...EXTENDING ACROSS N IN AND CNTRL OHIO. MAIN SFC LOW NOW
OVER S-CNTRL MN WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SWRD OVER IA AND NW MO.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S AND TEMPS INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. SAT PICS SHOWING THAT THE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED TODAY
AS EXPECTED...BUT WEAK CAP KEEPING THINGS AT BAY THUS FAR. MODELS
LOOKS SIMILAR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO NO REAL STRONG PREFERENCE. PER
HPC DISCUSSIONS/CHAT ROOM...HEAVED LEANED AWAY FROM GFS SOLUTION OF
UPPER LOW OVER PLAINS STATES WED/THU AND WENT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
OPTIMISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODELS SHOWING VERY STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER S IL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AREA FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION..SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. OVERALL THOUGH...EXPECT
THE MAIN SHOW TONIGHT TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE MCS LOOKING ACTIVITY ABOUT 3-6 HOURS ALSO.
NOTED LATEST QPFERD GRAPHICS...WILL DEFINITELY MAKE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINS IN ZONES BUT WILL HOLD SHORT OF ISSUING A FFA. COULD ALSO BE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE TONIGHT (INITIALLY) ALSO.

EXPECT SHRA/TSRA LIKELY IN THE MORNING TOMORROW. THEN LOOK FOR A
CALM PERIOD MIDDAY-AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS/RELOADS.
SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS PRETTY SERIOUS
AND AGREE WITH SPC MODERATE THREAT. OUR THINKING AT THIS TIME IS
AFTER 21Z TOMORROW...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 00Z AND LASTING UNTIL 06-07Z
OR SO. MAY GO AHEAD AND MAKE MENTION OF SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH DONT NORMALLY MENTION IT THAT FAR IN
ADVANCE. WE WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP THE HWO PRODUCT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY LOOKS MUCH CALMER...COOLER. CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO. HIGH TEMPS COME BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
COOLER AND MUCH MORE STABLE WEATHER TO DOMINATE MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
I KEPT MON-TUE PARTLY CLOUDY AND NO PCPN. DROPPED MENTION OF ALL
POPS ON WED. HPC FEELING THAT THE GFS IS WAY OVERDOING THE
CENTRAL-UPPER PLAINS LOW WED-THU AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DONT SUPPORT IT.
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN DATABASE FOR (FOR
NOW) ON THU OVER S 2/3 OF CWA. KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT. FURTHER COORDINATION WELCOME.

.ILX...NONE.

HALL

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
225 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

...A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL INTERACT WITH BOUNDARIES PRODUCED
BY LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 72.

LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON.  A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NEARBY FRONT...MUGGY AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR LONG-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD REMAIN
WEATHER ALERT ON SATURDAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE
WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX (ALL IN LOWER CASE)

BARKER