Tornado Warning 28, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003

COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND INLAND TO THE EASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES.
SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INDICATE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA (HIGHEST TO THE SW) WITH PWATS NEAR
1.9 INCHES. WE SHALL MAKE MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO 1ST PERIOD POPS
W/CHANCE CENTRAL/SOUTH AND ISOLATED POPS NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS
NOW BELOW SCA THRESHOLD FOR 0-20 REGION COASTAL WATERS AND WE EXPECT
TREND TO CONTINUE. 20-60 NM REGION WAVE HEIGHTS LOWERING PAST
SEVERAL HOURS BUT STILL RUNNING HIGH AT 7-8 FEET.

37/47/31

HGX...SCA 20 TO 60 NM COASTAL WATERS.
      SCEC 0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS.

CLL BB 098/075 097/073 096 212
IAH BB 095/074 095/074 095 312
GLS BB 090/080 090/080 091 322

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ..
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO AFFECT SE TX OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.  AT 08Z...ERIKA WAS NEARING THE DEEP S TX AND FAR NORTHERN
MEXICAN COAST.  A FEW RAIN BANDS MAY AFFECT SE TX...MAINLY TOWARD
THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.  WILL GO WITH THE
CURRENT ISOLATED POPS TODAY WITH 10 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION.  THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AND IN THE
GULF FOR A FEW DAYS.  THE GFS ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF INTO SE TX.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF HIGH HEAT
INDICES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SUBSIDENCE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA COULD HELP GENERATE VERY WARM WEATHER OVER SE TX
TODAY...WILL GO NEAR A MAV/FWC MIX FOR TEMPERATURES.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  CURRENT IR
SHOWED A DISSIPATING MCS MOVING ACROSS AL INTO MS.  ANY SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH MAY COMBINE WITH THE
SEABREEZE TO BRING ISOLATED ACTIVITY TOMORROW TO SE TX.

SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIKA WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP TODAY AND NEARSHORE
TONIGHT NEAR THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.  WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP
FOR SEAS.

PL-40
33

.

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-162300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
733 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.