Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Honolulu, HI

000 
WGHW70 PHFO 300220
FFSHI 
HIZ002-300330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
420 PM HST SAT NOV 29 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST OAHU CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM HST...

WEATHER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATE THAT VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER WINDWARD OAHU FROM KAHUKU TO KAILUA. SOME 
LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. 

OFFICIALS REPORT THAT KAMEHAMEHA HIGHWAY IS CLOSED BETWEEN WAIAHOLE 
AND WAIKANE VALLEYS...WITH FLOODING OCCURRING AT THE INTERSECTION OF 
KAMEHAMEHA HIGHWAY AND WAILEHUA STREET.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR WHEN PEOPLE ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED 
ROADS IN THEIR VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS 
THE ROAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$
R BALLARD

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
945 AM HST SAT NOV 29 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A SHEARLINE WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...SPREADING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER MOST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY.
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARLINE PASSAGE WILL DECREASE TO
MODERATE TRADES SUNDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHEARLINE ITSELF ARE STARTING TO AFFECT WINDWARD SHORES. THERE
ALSO HAVE BEEN SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ANCHORED OVER THE EAST END OF MAUI
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HAD AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY /USSFA/ FOR THAT AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE
DROPPING THIS AT 10 AM AS SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT THERE.

THE 850 MB WINDS ARE TAKING THE SHOWERS ONTO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND BASED ON
SATELLITE AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST SIDES WILL BE SHIELDED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL
PROBABLY REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR SOME LEEWARD SECTIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN AN UPDATE.

FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED OTHERWISE. THE SHEARLINE SHOULD
KEEP THE ISLANDS FAIRLY WET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS. THE UPPER LEVELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING AT US FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS GETTING A GOOD DRENCHING. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS AGREED UPON BY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS  ON
SUNDAY...SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONGER RANGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN
OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AN INVERTED TROUGH OR LOW MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE RETURNING MODERATE
TRADES TO THE ISLANDS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES NOW...BUT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE NEED FOR A WETTER FORECAST ON THOSE DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...SURF HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE PEAKING AND SHOULD CONTINUE AT
CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LARGE SWELL...AND ALSO WILL MAINTAIN
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS BOTH FOR HARBOR SURGES ON NORTH FACING
SHORES...AND IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHEARLINE AND THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING FOR EAST FACING SHORES.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS

&&

R BALLARD