Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
220 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN EARLY AND LATE AND TEMPERATURES.

OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL UTILIZE MIX
FOR GRIDDS.

WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM WATER VAPOR OVER
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA TO CONTINUE TO DROP SE DURING REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS NORTHERN FA WITH ABOVE CIRCULATION AND WEAK BOUNDARIES. MAIN
BOUNDARY EXITING RED RIVER VALLEY. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL
ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WILL MENTION ISOLD
TSRA OVER NW FA AND POSSIBLY OVER SOUTH WITH MOST ORGANIZATION OVER
NW MN.

PCPN SHOULD EXIT FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING LINGERING OVER FAR
NORTH LATEST AS FEATURES SHIFT EAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST AND WILL HOLD MINS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO MIDDLE 70S SO SHOULD SE GOOD SOLAR BEFORE POPPING ANY CU
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL MOIST LAYER AROUND 850 MB. COLUMN
BEGINS TO WARM SLIGHTLY SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE
WARMER.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH
COLUMN ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S SO
EXPECT MORE SOLAR AS COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY.

UPPER AND THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER FA ON TUESDAY. SFC BOUNDARY
SHIFTS INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME  LOOKS TO BE
CAPPED. WITH BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND BASED ON 700MB TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS DURING DAY.

.EXTENDED...
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW AFTER WED. WILL ADD THUNDER MENTION TUE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH AS CAP WEAKENS...AND IN ALL AREAS WED/WED NIGHT. THURSDAY
THUNDER WILL LINGER IN EASTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING. WILL KEEP
FRI/SAT DRY WITH EXPECTED ZONAL FLOW WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU...AND NEAR NORMAL FRI BEFORE WARMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

.FGF....NONE.

VOELKER/KELLENBENZ

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-281330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
635 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS GENERALLY EAST OF A ROSEAU TO FERGUS FALLS LINE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOS ALSO POSSIBLE.

COLD AIR ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

NG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
609 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    4 SW KELLIHER             MN   .75 INCH HAIL
06/28/03   BELTRAMI

0423 PM    3 SE ST. THOMAS           ND   .75 INCH HAIL
06/28/03   PEMBINA

0530 PM    1 N EAST GRAND FORKS      MN   .75 INCH HAIL
06/28/03   POLK                           PENNY SIZED HAIL FOR 4
                                          MINUTES

0537 PM    GRAND FORKS               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
06/28/03   GRAND FORKS                    REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS
                                          EMPLOYEE

RD