Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 3, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT for Steele County, North Dakota. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 3, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT (20:45 UTC)
- Expired
- May 3, 2003, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 45 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Steele County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 237 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1380 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 140 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
975 WUUS53 KFGF 032045 SVRFGF NDC091-032130- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 345 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. * UNTIL 430 PM CDT. * AT 330 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHARON...OR ABOUT 44 MILES NORTH OF VALLEY CITY...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... FINLEY AT 355 PM... SHERBROOKE AT 420 PM AND GOLDEN LAKE AT 425 PM. REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. LAT...LON 4766 9797 4746 9798 4733 9749 4761 9749 $$ 08/DK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 3, 2:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 3, 2:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 240 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPS .OVERVIEW... NICE SHORTWAVE AND ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB JET AROUND 30KT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRACK OF LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN FIRST 36 HOURS. GFS CONTINUES HIGHER QPF VALUES ACROSS NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH ETA TARGETING SOUTHERN AREAS. LIKE ETA IDEA OF HITTING SOUTH HARDEST SO WILL USE. .TONIGHT... 850MB JET INCREASES TO 50KT INTO NORTHEAST SD AFTER 06Z...WITH MOISTURE SURGING NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SOUTH AS WELL...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY THUNDER CHANCES HERE WITH STRENGTH OF MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION IN MID LEVELS AS LOW DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER NORTH...WILL TAPER THUNDER CHANCE TO SCATTERED AS SOME SUBSIDENCE ACTUALLY OCCURS BEHIND FIRST SHORTWAVE. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO MID 40S...EXPECT LOWS TO BE NEAR THESE VALUES. .SUNDAY-TUESDAY... PRECIPITATION MODE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO STRATIFORM TYPE SUNDAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH LOW DEEPENING IN IOWA THEN LIFTING INTO MN. INTENSE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH 65KT AT 850MB WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO REGION...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCE IN SOUTH...WITH RAIN POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES IN DEFORMATION ZONE. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE DRY AIR BEING PULLED INTO AREA FROM EAST...SO WILL TAPER SHOWER CHANCES HERE. CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE HEADED EAST AT THIS TIME...SO WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN SOUTH...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH GENERALLY IN LOW/MID 50S TO NEAR 60 NORTH AND LOWS AROUND 40 THROUGH PERIOD. EXTENDED...MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER/SHOWERS ON THU IS MAINLY RELATED TO A MINOR SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. TIMING OF THAT SHORTWAVE IS VERY DIFFICULT ATTM AND WILL NECESSARILY BROADBRUSH THUNDER THU/THU NIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO STAY WITHIN 60 DM OF CLIMATOLOGY. WILL NOT STRAY TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 5-10 DEGREES FROM CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. .FGF...NONE KELLENBENZ/GV
Hazardous weather outlook, May 3, 7:47 AM CDT, 7 hours 58 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031400- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 615 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THEY WILL BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND BE NEAR SIOUX FALLS MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR RAIN OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RIDDLE
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 3, 1:35 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
135 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0120 PM 4 NE ST MICHAEL ND .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/03 BENSONLocal storm report, May 3, 2:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
229 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0225 PM FINLEY ND .88 INCH HAIL
05/03/03 STEELELocal storm report, May 3, 2:50 PM CDT, 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0125 PM 4 W CRARY ND .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/03 RAMSEYThe office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 12:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson, Ramsey | 52 min |
| May 3, 1:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Steele | 51 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.