Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Grand Forks, ND

May 3, 2003Steele County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 3, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT for Steele County, North Dakota. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT (20:45 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2003, 4:30 PM CDT
In force
45 min
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Steele County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 237 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2003-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2003-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 140 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1380 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
140 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

975 
WUUS53 KFGF 032045
SVRFGF
NDC091-032130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.

* AT 330 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHARON...OR ABOUT 44 MILES
  NORTH OF VALLEY CITY...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  FINLEY AT 355 PM...
  SHERBROOKE AT 420 PM AND
  GOLDEN LAKE AT 425 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4766 9797 4746 9798 4733 9749 4761 9749

$$
08/DK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 3, 2:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 3, 2:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
240 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPS

.OVERVIEW...
NICE SHORTWAVE AND ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN 1/3
OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB JET AROUND 30KT. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRACK OF LOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN FIRST 36 HOURS. GFS
CONTINUES HIGHER QPF VALUES ACROSS NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH ETA
TARGETING SOUTHERN AREAS. LIKE ETA IDEA OF HITTING SOUTH HARDEST SO
WILL USE.

.TONIGHT...
850MB JET INCREASES TO 50KT INTO NORTHEAST SD AFTER 06Z...WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AN INCH OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SOUTH AS WELL...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY THUNDER
CHANCES HERE WITH STRENGTH OF MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION IN MID LEVELS
AS LOW DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER NORTH...WILL TAPER
THUNDER CHANCE TO SCATTERED AS SOME SUBSIDENCE ACTUALLY OCCURS
BEHIND FIRST SHORTWAVE. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO MID 40S...EXPECT
LOWS TO BE NEAR THESE VALUES.

.SUNDAY-TUESDAY...
PRECIPITATION MODE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO STRATIFORM TYPE SUNDAY
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH LOW DEEPENING IN IOWA THEN LIFTING INTO MN.
INTENSE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH 65KT AT 850MB WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO REGION...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LIFT. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCE IN
SOUTH...WITH RAIN POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES IN DEFORMATION ZONE.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE DRY AIR BEING PULLED INTO AREA FROM
EAST...SO WILL TAPER SHOWER CHANCES HERE. CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE HEADED
EAST AT THIS TIME...SO WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN SOUTH...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH
GENERALLY IN LOW/MID 50S TO NEAR 60 NORTH AND LOWS AROUND 40 THROUGH
PERIOD.

EXTENDED...MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER/SHOWERS ON THU IS
MAINLY RELATED TO A MINOR SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS ON THE
HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. TIMING OF THAT SHORTWAVE IS VERY
DIFFICULT ATTM AND WILL NECESSARILY BROADBRUSH THUNDER THU/THU
NIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO STAY WITHIN 60 DM OF
CLIMATOLOGY. WILL NOT STRAY TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 5-10 DEGREES FROM
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.FGF...NONE

KELLENBENZ/GV
Hazardous weather outlook, May 3, 7:47 AM CDT, 7 hours 58 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
615 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THEY WILL BE BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...AND BE NEAR
SIOUX FALLS MONDAY.  THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR RAIN OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RIDDLE

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 3, 1:35 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
135 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0120 PM    4 NE ST MICHAEL           ND   .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/03   BENSON
Local storm report, May 3, 2:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
229 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0225 PM    FINLEY                    ND   .88 INCH HAIL
05/03/03   STEELE
Local storm report, May 3, 2:50 PM CDT, 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0125 PM    4 W CRARY                 ND   .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/03   RAMSEY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 12:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBenson, Ramsey52 min
May 3, 1:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFSteele51 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.