Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 29, 2003Clearwater County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 29, 2003, 5:25 PM CDT for Clearwater County, Minnesota. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2003, 5:25 PM CDT (22:25 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2003, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Clearwater County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 29, 3:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1266 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 66 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 76 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

831 
WUUS53 KFGF 292225
SVRFGF
MNC029-292315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
525 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN CLEARWATER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 521 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF LONG LOST LAKE...OR ABOUT 30
  MILES NORTHEAST OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 15
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  LONG LOST LAKE AT 540 PM...
  ZERKEL AT 545 PM AND
  LAKE ITASCA AT 610 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4732 9555 4715 9555 4715 9518 4734 9519

$$
HOPPES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 29, 5:15 PM CDT, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 5:15 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
515 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

BASED ON SPC WATCH UPDATE AND SPC TELCO...WILL ISSUE SPS TO DROP ERN
ND AND ADJACENT NW MN COUNTIES FROM CURRENT SVR TSTM WATCH.  THREAT
IS OVER WEST OF A ROX-TVF-FFM LINE.

----------------------------

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS MAJORITY OF AREA SUNNY...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER E
ND AND PARTS OF NW MN. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS ONE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN HCO AND ROX...AND ANOTHER NEAR PIR...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BETWEEN THE LOWS THROUGH E ND. WHEN COMPARING
INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS TO MODELS...ETA AND AVN BOTH CLOSE...SO
USED COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR FORECAST. COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E
TONIGHT. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW STARTING TO CATCH UP TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY...PLENTY OF INSOLATION TODAY RESULTING IN LIS TO
-9...SURFACE DEWPOINTS POOLING AT 65+ ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...STILL EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...PRETTY MUCH STAYED ON TRACK OF CURRENT FORECAST. COLD
FRONT EXITS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STARTS MOVING INTO AREA AS 500MB LOW DROPS THROUGH MB.
THEREFORE...KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR WED INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS PRECIPITATION.
500MB LOW CUTS OFF OVER MN ARROWHEAD AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA. WITH
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD
POOL ALOFT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL TO REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
EACH DAY AS SURFACE HEATING WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED...LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE W AND TROUGH IN THE E FORECAST TO
REMAIN. HOWEVER...PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E BETWEEN
DAY 4 AND DAY 7. GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH SAT. ENSEMBLE MEAN SHARPENS
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE W US ON SUN AND MON WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER THE N PLAINS. RIDGING SHOULD KICK GREAT LAKES TROUGH E ON SUN.
OLD 12Z GFS RUN IS CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THE 00Z RUN. NEW
12Z GFS RUN CONTINUES TO DIG W COAST TROUGH...BUT IS SLOWER LIFTING
OUT CUTOFF LOW WHICH WAS OLD 12Z SOLUTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SAT. WILL TAKE OUT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LATE SUN INTO MON WITH BUILDING RIDGE.

.FGF...NONE.

NG/HOPPES

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 8:53 AM CDT, 8 hours 32 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-291430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
853 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 10 AM AND
CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THE
AREA...LINGERING IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HOPPES

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 29, 4:39 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
439 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0425 PM    4 S JOLIETTE              ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/29/03   PEMBINA

0426 PM    ROSEAU                    MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/29/03   ROSEAU

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 5:19 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

MNZ001>004-007-008-013>015-029-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-039-049-
052>054-292330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
519 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 813 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THAT WAS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

NORTH DAKOTA...
PEMBINA...WALSH...GRAND FORKS...STEELE...TRAILL...CASS...BARNES...
RANSOM...SARGENT...AND RICHLAND.

MINNESOTA...
KITTSON...MARSHALL...POLK...RED LAKE...PENNINGTON...NORMAN...CLAY...
AND WILKIN.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE
MINNESOTA COUNTIES OF ROSEAU...LAKE OF THE WOODS...BELTRAMI...
MAHNOMEN...CLEARWATER...HUBBARD...BECKER...OTTER TAIL...WADENA...AND
GRANT.

A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE IT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

RIDDLE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 29, 4:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	41 min
Jul 29, 4:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson	50 min
Jul 29, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Marshall	45 min
Jul 29, 4:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	46 min
Jul 29, 5:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	50 min
Jul 29, 5:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker	48 min
Jul 29, 6:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Hubbard	49 min
Jul 29, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.