Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

April 15, 2003Otter Tail County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 15, 2003, 7:15 PM CDT for Otter Tail County, Minnesota. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 15, 2003, 7:15 PM CDT (00:15 UTC)
Expired: Apr 15, 2003, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Otter Tail County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 198 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1456 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 310 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 388 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

053 
WUUS53 KFGF 160015
SVRFGF
MNC111-160100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
715 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  EASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

* AT 711 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PARKERS PRAIRIE...OR ABOUT 36 MILES EAST
  OF FERGUS FALLS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  WRIGHTSTOWN AT 740 PM AND
  NEW YORK MILLS AT 750 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4613 9554 4614 9519 4671 9520 4668 9535

$$

BERG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 15, 2:40 PM CDT, 4 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 2:40 PM CDT, 4 hours 35 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
240 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

CHALLENGING FCST UPCOMING. PRIMIARLY WENT WITH ETA SOLN...WITH A FEW
TWEEKS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN TWO CAMPS TODAY...ETA/GFS/NGM SIMILAR WITH
TRACK OF UPR LOW/SFC LOW THRU NRN KS TO NR STL BY 48HRS.
CANADIAN/UKMET A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH CANADIAN HAVING LOW NEAR
QUAD CITIES IA/IL BY 48 HRS.  CANADIAN THUS WOULD HAVE MORE PCPN
OVER SRN FCST AREA...WHEREAS ETA/GFS/NGM SHOW STRONG INFLUENCE OF
DRY AIR FROM CANADIAN HIGH MOVING IN HERE WEDNESDAY AND MAIN WARM
ADVECTION PCPN BAND JUST HUGGING OUR SRN COUNTIES WITH MAJORITY OF
PCPN IN CNTRL MN.

.SHORT TERM...
FIRST OFF...COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SEEN IN WATER VAPOR/RUC WITH ONE
MOVING INTO CNTRL NE AND OTHER IN WRN SD.  BOTH GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS.  NEBRASKA SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
GENERATE SHRA/TSRA ACTION IN PARTS OF MN IN AREA OF STRONG 85H
THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS CNTRL MN.  ELEVATED WEAKER MID LEVEL
SHOWERS MAY MOVE UP INTO SE ND.  GFS SOLN HAS LOTS OF QPF BY 00Z
OVER SE ND AND DISCOUNTED THIS.  ETA ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN UP TO GFK
BY LATE EVENING...ALSO DID NOT BUY THIS AS AIRMASS BELOW 700MB IS
VERY DRY ACROSS NE ND.  EVENING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FOR ANY CHANGES.

SECOND PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL WINTRY PCPN AS THE SFC-85H
LAYER COOLS.  ETA PROG SOUNDINGS FROM THE WADENA AREA SHOWS BEST
COOLING AROUND 925 MB WITH A WARM LAYER NR 850 MB.  THUS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IP/FZRA.  FOR NOW WENT WITH SLEET MIXING IN LATER
TONIGHT OVER WCNTRL MN AND SE ND AS SFC TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO OR
ABV 32F.

.LONGER TERM...
SFC-85H DEW PTS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AS 50H RIDGE BUILDS
ON TOP OF CNTRL PLAINS LOW.  THIS WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN ONTARIO
HIGH AND NORTHEASTERLY DRY WINDS.  THUS KEPT NRN 1/2 FCST AREA DRY.
KEPT POPS OF RA/SN IN THE FAR SOUTH COUNTIES.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT ALL MODELS DO HAVE IDEA OF A NRN
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU ERN ND INTO NW MN 06-18Z TIME PD.  ETA HAS
BEEN BULLISH WITH QPF OF LATE AND WILL TONE IT BACK SOME.  HOW MUCH
PCPN CAN BE GENERATED THIS FAR NORTH AS MAIN ENERGY IS SOUTH OF HERE
IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL WOULD BE SNOW BY
LOOKING AT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.  WILL HAVE 50 POP FOR NOW.  DID
READ QPFHSD FROM HPC.  HESISTANT TO GO LIKELY ATTM TIL WE GET A
BETTER CONFIDENCE OF PCPN AMTS.  PLUS AFTER 80S OF A FEW DAYS
AGO...GROUND IS WARMING UP ABV FREEZING.

.EXTENDED...LONGWAVE TO REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES IN VERY SPLIT FLOW. THE UPPER
JET WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO CAUSE MUCH PRECIPITATION HERE. GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A PROBLEM AS ITS SHORTWAVES ARE NOT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO ITS JET (MODIFIED FARTHER SOUTH) WHILE ITS DEW POINTS CONTINUE
TOO HIGH ANYWAY. FOR FRI NIGHT AT LEAST...FOLLOWED LEAD OF ETA IN
KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE
WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

.FGF...NONE.

RIDDLE/GV

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 6:56 AM CDT, 12 hours 19 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
656 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HOPPES

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.