Severe Thunderstorm Warning 298, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

330 PM EDT PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.OVERVIEW...
CUT OFF LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS SENDING SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES INTO GULF COAST STATES.  FLAT RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS
GEORGIA.

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ATLANTA TO AUGUSTA.  STORMS DEVELOPED IN HIGHER
CAPE AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 250 JET SPEED DIFFLUENCE AS UPPER
SUPPORT.  SOME STORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH PWS NEAR
1.7 INCHES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL ENERGY IN ADDITION TO ADVANCING NVA AREA INDICATED BY ALL
MODELS.  WILL GO 10 POPS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AGAIN SCATTERED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IN AFTERNOON.  TUESDAY OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE GULF.  THIS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY.  BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORE PRONOUNCED
TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT.  LATEST MODELS INDICATE DRY CANADIAN AIR NEVER MAKES IT TO GA
THOUGH WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW TRENDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.EXTENDED...
MOIST AIRMASS WILL KEEP CHANCE RW AND TRW THROUGH WEEKEND...MAINLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE.  CUTOFF LOW GIVES WAY TO BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
MIDWEST BY FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS...OVERALL WILL MAKE LITTLE DAY TO DAY SWING AS AIR MASS
REMAINS SAME...WITH HUMID NIGHTS AND WARM TO HOT DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 71 86 69 84 / 30 40 40 40
KAHN 70 87 68 85 / 30 40 40 40
KGVL 70 85 68 83 / 30 40 30 40
KRMG 67 87 68 85 / 30 30 30 40
KCSG 73 90 72 87 / 30 50 40 40
KMCN 71 89 71 87 / 30 50 40 40

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND EXPECT MUCH OF
PRECIP TO END BY SUNSET. LITTLE STRATUS AROUND THIS MORNING...MAINLY
CONFINED TO CSG AREA. HOWEVER WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD
SEE SOME LIGHT FOG (2-5 MILES) LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME LOCALIZED URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WITH CAPES
LESS THAN 2000 AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4...NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

GAZ016-162145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
511 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN IN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WHITE COUNTY...BETWEEN
CLEVELAND AND HELEN...MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE INTENSE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN CAUSE FIRES. RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES...AND MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN STEEP OR HILLY TERRAIN.  MOTORISTS OF THIS
AREA SHOULD SLOW DOWN OR AVOID TRAVEL DURING THE NEXT HOUR...AND
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

RAB

GAZ086-162230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR INTENSE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
IN EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM EDT.

AT 550 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...INTENSIFYING OVER EASTERN EMANUEL COUNTY
BETWEEN GARFIELD AND SWAINSBORO. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE INTENSE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AS IT BUILDS FURTHER WEST
INTO THE COUNTY TOWARD SWAINSBORO...SUMMERTOWN...NUNEZ...AND
STILLMORE.

LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN CAUSE FIRES. RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES...AND MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
558 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 PM    HELEN                     GA   LIGHTNING
06/16/03   WHITE                          *** 2 INJ ***
                                          REPORTED BY WHITE COUNTY
                                          911. 9 YEAR OLD AND 44
                                          YEAR OLD MALES STRUCK BY
                                          LIGHTNING. BOTH CONSCIOUS
                                          WHEN RESCUE PERSONNEL
                                          ARRIVED ON SCENE. EXTENT
                                          OF INJURIES UNKNOWN.

GAZ076-162245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
606 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR INTENSE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM EDT.

AT 605 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN BURKE
COUNTY...DEVELOPING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE INTENSE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CITIES OF
LOUISVILLE...BARTOW...AND WADLEY.

LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN CAUSE FIRES. RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES...AND MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY 645 PM EDT.

RAB

GAZ109>112-162330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IN NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN
WHEELER...TELFAIR...AND EASTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 645 PM EDT..NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
BAND OF DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM
TARRYTOWN IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...TO ALAMO IN WHEELER COUNTY...TO
MILAN IN TELFAIR COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING WEST AND
SOUTH...AND WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN DODGE COUNTY AS WELL.

FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN CAUSE FIRES. RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONED AREAS. YOU
SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

RAB

GAZ086-098-162345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN EMANUEL AND TREUTLEN COUNTIES UNTIL
745 PM EDT.

AT 715 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NUNEZ IN WESTERN
EMANUEL COUNTY...TO SOPERTON IN TREUTLEN COUNTY...TO SOUTHERN DODGE
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD FROM THIS LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN CAUSE FIRES. RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD
PRONED AREAS. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RAB