Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING MUCH IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS. STILL
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY AIRMASS CONVECTION THIS EVENING DYING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DONT EXPECT AS MUCH SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH 500MB TEMPERATURE A GOOD 2 DEGREES
WARMER ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING...IN FACT ENTIRE SOUNDING FROM
AROUND 700-400MB WAS WARMER THIS MORNING. MODIFIED MORNING FFC
SOUNDING TO 85 DEGREES UNLEASHES ONLY AROUND 500J/KG VS NEARLY
2500J/KG YESTERDAY. TOMORROW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS TAIL-END OF THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRUSHES NORTH GEORGIA AND PUSHES SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS FOR NOW THAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF SHORE...LEAVING NORTH GEORGIA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. RIDGE AXIS CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 62 83 60 81 / 30 40 30 10
KAHN 62 83 59 82 / 50 40 30 10
KGVL 60 81 56 79 / 50 40 30 10
KRMG 60 83 58 81 / 40 40 30 10
KCSG 64 87 64 85 / 30 40 30 10
KMCN 64 87 64 84 / 30 40 30 10

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

 20

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF GEORGIA AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER GEORGIA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. CAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 1500 TO 1800 THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICES OF -2 TO -4. THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO MACON...
TO CORDELE AND BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 2 PM AND 9 PM. DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.