Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

UPDATED ALL FORECASTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND MUCH HIGHER
POPS AS MCS SWEEPS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.

26/06/04/03/JB

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS AND IS PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. CELL
MOVEMENT IS SLOW BY NW FLOW STANDARDS. IN ADDITION...TWO MORE
SHORTWAVE FEATURES ARE SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA TO BE
EN ROUTE TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING
OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL IN A DROUGHT, THE
RAINS SHOULD FALL TO FAST FOR THE GROUND TO HOLD THE
WATER--ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND URBAN AREAS.

MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO GENERATE MUCH QPF FROM THIS FIRST
WAVE AND DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF FROM THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS FORMING OVERHEAD, WILL BUY INTO THE MODEL
FORECAST FOR A RESPITE FOR LATE THIS EVENING. THEN, A THIRD AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM NW TX WILL PRESENT A
HIGHER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN
LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS HOWEVER, GFS SOLUTIONS CALL FOR A THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT.

WILL LET THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS PLAY OUT AND ALLOW THE
EVENING SHIFT TO REASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND THE
DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WILL MENTION
POSSIBLE SEVERE FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ACCORDING TO THE GFS, THERE IS MORE GLOOM
AND DOOM IN THE FORECAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THOSE
WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS MAY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

SATURDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY IF THE CANADIAN AND GFS HAVE
THEIR WAY--SINCE THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT, WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH RIDGE BUILDING EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS AND WINDS.

PRELIMS...
AUS 069/089/073/087/072 44444
DRT 074/097/075/093/074 54444
SAT 071/089/074/088/073 44444

.EWX...NONE
18/8

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-041100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT TIMES ARE FROM 2 TO 7 PM TODAY AND 2 TO 9
AM WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...THE PRINCIPAL RISK IS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10...INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL
MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE OR PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. BE ESPECIALLY ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS ABLE TO
MONITOR CREEKS AND RIVERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT.

TXZ173-191>194-205>209-219>225-041100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476 IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 6 AM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING.

COUNTIES IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE...
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...AND WILSON.

HAVE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO HANDY OR STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TV AND RADIO
STATIONS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

26/JWZ