Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1254 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

CAP IS NOW BREAKING SO WILL BUMP FIRST PERIOD POPS SLIGHTLY TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LACK OF CUMULUS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS ISOLATED POPS TO WORK BEST THERE.
CUMULUS FIELD IS HELPING TO IDENTIFY A BROAD SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM JCT TO HALLETSVILLE WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY FROM
LAKE BUCHANAN TO BASTROP. WITH MAXIMUM CUMULUS AND CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL RAISE THIS AREA INTO 40 PERCENT
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MINOR SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE LATE MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TONIGHT AS
FORECAST BY MODELS. THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
TONIGHT NORTH AND RAISE THEM TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK STILL, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING
IN THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST, WILL ADD MENTION OF HEAT INDICES THERE.
WITH THE HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL AREAS WILL ADD SEVERE FOR
FIRST TWO PERIODS AREA-WIDE.

.EWX...NONE
18/8

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT TIMES ARE FROM 2 TO 7 PM TODAY AND 2 TO 9
AM WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...THE PRINCIPAL RISK IS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10...INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL
MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE OR PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. BE ESPECIALLY ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS ABLE TO
MONITOR CREEKS AND RIVERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 PM CDT TUE JUNE 3 2003

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FORMING OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUING
FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE OR APPROACH SEVERE
CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS AREAS WARM UP...GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN THUNDERSTORMS PASS BY.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING MAY ALSO AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.