Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1020 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ENOUGH MOISTURE (TO 850 MB) AND CAPES
>2000 PLUS 700 MB TEMPS HAVE LOWERED BELOW 10 DEGREES C...ENOUGH TO
BREAK CAP.  WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRIGGER ACTIVITY.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

02/18/BR

IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT AND LONG
TERM AS THE UPPER RDG WEAKENS...AND THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
OVER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.  IN THE SHORT TERM...BOTH ETA/GFS
BRIEFLY BRING A SUBTLE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWD INTO THE CWA
THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND GENERATE LIFT AND CONVECTION WITH THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE CWA.  WILL CONT WITH LOW POPS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
TDA INTO TONIGHT...BUT LET HWO HANDLE MENTION OF ISOLD SVR IN THE
EAST AS INDICATED BY THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK.  THE CURRENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WLY BY WED AND SWLY BY THU...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
S/W TROF THAT WILL MOVE ACRS TX FRI AND DRAG THE NEXT CDFNT ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST BY FRI NIGHT.  GFS AND ECMWF SOMEWHAT AGREE WITH A
COLD FROPA ON FRI AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE S/W...THIS COULD BE OUR BEST SHOT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  THEREFORE WILL UP POPS FM
SLGT CHC TO CHC CATEGORY ON FRIDAY.  WEEKEND A BIT IFFY...AND
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY COULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W...WILL LEAVE
SLGT CHC IN OVER THE WEEKEND RATHER THAN YO-YO POPS...AND THIS ALSO
MATCHES ADJOINING ISC POP GRIDS.  01/26

PRELIMS...
AUS EB 092/070 092/072 088 01322 0000/0000/0000
    EEEEB 073/089 071/089 068/088 066/090 3332333222
DRT BB 095/074 095/076 094 01332 0000/0000/0000
    EEEEB 076/092 074/094 074/090 070/095 2222222222
SAT BB 093/072 092/073 089 01222 0000/0000/0000
    EEEEB 075/090 073/090 071/090 068/091 2222333222

.EWX...NONE.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-031100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
530 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL BRING A SLIGHT
RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF TEXAS HIGHWAY 71...FROM LLANO
TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT TIME IS FROM 2 TO 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...BUT NO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.