Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1035 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2003

UPDATED FORECAST AT AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING TO REFINE PECIPITATION
CHANCES TO REFLECT THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFTING IS MAXIMIZED BY THE DEEPER PART
OF THE FRONT INTERFACED WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE CURRENT POPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WILL UPDATE AGAIN BY 11 AM
TO TWEAK TEMPS AND WINDS WITH MAIN ADJUSTMENTS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FAILS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SHALLOW PART OF THE FRONT HERE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL LIKELY
REMOVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND BEYOND FOR THESE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. CURRENT POPS ARE ADMITTEDLY ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BEING OBSERVED IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE AMOUNTS.

.EWX...NONE

18/8

.EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION........................................
CURRENT WX...CDFNT HAS STALLED OVER COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. PRECIP IN FORM OF TSTMS IS
CONFINED TO LOWER RIO GRANDE AREA. STRONG H8 RIDGE OVERLIES NRN
TX...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY SUGGEST A SLOWER RETURN NWD OF THE WARM
AIR...BUT 305K PLOT INDICATES LIFTING HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

TODAY AND TONITE...EXPECT AIRMASS TO SATURATE SLOWLY THRU THE
MORNING... WITH SHOWERS SPREADING NWD THRU THE AFTN AND ACROSS MOST
SECTIONS. FCST PACKAGE WILL TREND CLOSEST TO ETA AS THE AVN APPEARS
TO BE ON SOME SERIOUS STERIODS WITH ITS 40 PVA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TUE...ETA SHOWS MARKED DRYING ABOVE H8 LEVEL BY TUE AFTN WITH WARM
AIR...SLY LO LVL WINDS...AND SMOKE...BACK IN PLACE AGAIN.

EXTENDED...ONCE THE MOISTURE RETURNS...A RATHER DULL SAMENESS WILL
TAKE OVER FOR AT LEAST 48 HRS.  BACK TO VERY WARM AND HUMID DAYS
WITH MILD TO WARM NIGHTS AT LEAST THRU THU.  THERE IS ONLY A SLIM
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS SERN
TX.  BUT MODELS PLACE SC TX IN A DRIER SLOT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...SO WILL CONTINUE AT THIS TIME WITH DRY EXTENDED FCST.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
510 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH TODAY...MOVES BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 TO 105 BY FRIDAY AT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.