Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2003

AN UNUSUAL WET AUGUST PATTERN IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE DECAYING MCS ON OUR DOORSTEP AT THE MOMENT WILL
HELP TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST...ENOUGH FUEL ADDED TO THE FIRE FOR SOME INTENSE
STORMS TONIGHT AS INFLOW INCREASES...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. ADDED SURFACE
MOISTURE FROM RAINS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
SUNDAY WITH A DIVERGENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY IMPULSES SWEEP SOUTH. BY
MIDWEEK..A WEAKNESS IS CARVED OUT IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SO
AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUND REASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
TROPIC-LIKE.

BERMUDA HIGH MAY MAKE AN ENTRANCE BY NEXT SUNDAY (AUG 17TH) WITH A
POSSIBLE CUTOFF TO RAIN CHANCES.

02/18/KW

NUMBERS...
AUS BB 070/098 070/098 069 02843 0000/0000/0000
    BEBBB 095/073 092/074 092/073 094/073 094 33334433222
DRT BB 078/098 073/095 073 02632 0000/0000/0000
    BBBBB 097/075 096/077 096/077 095/077 095 11122233222
SAT BB 073/098 073/095 076 02843 0000/0000/0000
    BEBBB 095/075 093/076 093/076 094/076 094 33333333222

.EWX...NONE.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

INTENSE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT TIME
FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM 3 TO 7 PM. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL
BE THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FROM
GEORGETOWN TO SAN ANTONIO.

AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE THREAT AREA FOR THESE STORMS.
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT TIME WILL BE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AFTER
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.