Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

RUNNING LATE WITH SEVERE WX. MODELS CLOSE IN SHORT TERM...STILL
GOING WITH MODELS THAT TAKE THE FRIDAY SYSTEM FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH SPEED OF FRONTAL MOVEMENT IN EXTENDED...MONDAY
TUES TIME FRAME. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE THUNDER EARLIER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE HAIL STORMS OVER THE AREA WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING.

AM STILL GOING TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN ZONES DRY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL KEEPS THE PCPN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBLE
NORTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION BLEEDING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO FIRE FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON.
H850-300 FLOW AND CORF VECTORS WOULD INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THIS TO MOVE INTO NW IA IF IT WOULD HOLD TOGETHER. ATMOSPHERE DOWN
HERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PCPN SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ADDING
LOW POPS.

.DSM...NONE

JAW

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-16000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1253 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL INSTIGATE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...A
FEW SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE OBSERVED UNDERNEATH DEVELOPING
CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DMX (ALL LOWER
CASE).

MYERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
0229 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 PM    MINGO                     IA   1.75 IN HAIL
05/14/03   JASPER

0207 PM    2 S MASON CITY            IA   0.88 IN HAIL
05/14/03   CERRO GORDO

0205 PM    7 N THOMPSON              IA   0.88 IN HAIL
05/14/03   WINNEBAGO

0152 PM    FOREST CITY               IA   1.75 IN HAIL
05/14/03   WINNEBAGO

0136 PM    N THOMPSON                IA   1.00 IN HAIL
05/14/03   WINNEBAGO

CAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
0300 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0248 PM    5 N HAMPTON               IA   1.00 IN HAIL
05/14/03   FRANKLIN                       REPORTED BY A TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

0244 PM    N MARSHALLTOWN            IA   1.00 IN HAIL
05/14/03   MARSHALL                       REPORTED BY A TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

0243 PM    KELLOGG                   IA   0.88 IN HAIL
05/14/03   JASPER

0242 PM    3 S CLEAR LAKE            IA   1.75 IN HAIL
05/14/03   CERRO GORDO

0227 PM    3 NE LAKE MILLS           IA   0.75 IN HAIL
05/14/03   WORTH

CAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
0320 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0218 PM    5 S CLEAR LAKE            IA   0.88 IN HAIL
05/14/03   CERRO GORDO                    REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
                                          DEPARTMENT

CAB