Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2003

DAYS 1-2...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PERSISTENT EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH, BRINGING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE DRYLINE BACKS UP TO THE WEST. IF
THE DRYLINE STAYS EAST OF DDC THEN WE COULD SEE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IF THE WINDS CAN DROP OFF TO AROUND 8 KTS. WILL KEEP GOING
FCST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES. A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND BY 12 HOURS, LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY DESPITE THE NORTHEAST WINDS. WE WILL LOSE THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND THIS WILL KNOCK ABOUT 5 DEGREES OFF MAXES, OR ABOUT 3
DEGREES ABOVE THE GOING FCST. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
CANADIAN FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT SO WE LOWERED MINS 3-5 DEGREES SINCE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S WITH CLEAR SKIES. GOING HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY LOOK GOOD AND WERE NOT CHANGED.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ON THE FRONT RANGE, BUT THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO VERY STABLE AIR. POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN STORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO EXTREMELY STABLE AIR FRIDAY NIGHT. KEPT SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS PER GOING FCST IN CASE STORMS MANAGE TO SURVIVE.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD, MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS
FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE WEST COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HERE IN THE
PLAINS, BUT MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SUCH WAVES.  PREDICTING THESE DISTURBANCES OUT IN THE EXTENDED OFTEN
AMOUNTS TO LITTLE MORE THAN NOISE ANYWAY.  THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON BRINGING THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING OFF THE CA COAST UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE, WEAKENING IT BY THE TIME IT PASSES THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW AS
YESTERDAYS RUNS, BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME, AND WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH WILL LEAVE THE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND COOLER
HIGHS ALONE FOR NOW.  MONDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE MUDDLED, BUT WITH THE
SFC LOW MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENDING WILL KEEP US
DRY AFTER 12Z.  MODELS BRING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY, WITH REINFORCING WAVES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES OF POPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS THESE SHORTWAVES DIG AND UPSLOPE
SFC FLOW OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS OF WHERE AND WHEN THE PRECIP
WILL HAPPEN WONT BE CLEAR UNTIL LATER.

FINCH/RITTERLING

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 67 93 57 77 / 00 00 20 00
GCK 65 93 56 77 / 00 00 30 00
EHA 68 95 57 77 / 00 00 30 00
LBL 67 95 57 78 / 00 00 20 00
HYS 65 91 55 75 / 00 00 10 00
P28 69 95 59 79 / 00 00 20 00

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-301000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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